UFC Vegas 75: Fantasy DFS Lineup
UFC VEGAS 75: FANTASY DFS LINEUP – There are two mainstays to play DFS for MMA; DraftKings and FanDuel. The respective scoring rules for DraftKings and FanDuel are similar, and I will always list fighters I think should be selected as MVP at the top, while using DraftKings’ budgeting system to model my projections.
Marvin Vettori $8,000 (MVP)
Vettori is fighting Jared Cannonier in the main event, which the oddsmakers have deemed an even fight. Both fighters are valued in the $8,000 range and provide an opportunity to get an excellent fighter relatively cheaply.
The ‘Italian Dream’ Vettori is presently averaging 4.38 significant strikes per minute, and has proven his ability to win a decision over five rounds – as was the case when he met Paulo Costa back in October 2021:
Cannonier is a tough matchup for anyone, but only the best in the middleweight division have given Vettori trouble. Good though he is, Cannonier is not quite there.
Raoni Barcelos $9,300
Barcelos has a good matchup against Miles Johns and should bounce back from his loss to Umar Nurmagamedov. He has a striking and grappling advantage in this fight, and should not have to worry much about Johns’ shooting takedowns.
It would do Barcelos well to mix things up and get some control time on the mat. Johns is skilled, but he is not on Barcelos’ level yet.
Manuel Torres $8,900
Manuel Torres made a splash in his UFC debut when he knocked out Frank Camacho in the first round. This weekend sees him face Nikolas Motta, who is entering this fight after a first-round knockout of his own over Cameron VanCamp.
Torres is 13-2, with his two losses coming via submission, and Motta is 13-4, with three knockout losses. Boasting a three-inch reach advantage, Torres can easily pressure Motta and eventually land a power shot. He also has a stronger chin than his opponent.
Cristian Quinonez $8,800
This bantamweight matchup is -165 to go the distance, and Quinonez is the favored fighter to win by decision. He faces Kyung Ho Kang, a technical, methodical fighter who mixes in grappling.
Alongside a 100% success rate on the takedown defense, Quinonez lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.87. He also averages 5.21 significant strikes per minute, and absorbs 4.60 over the same period.
Armen Petrosyan $7,600
Armed with a deadly kick, Petrosyan is stepping into the octagon against Christian Leroy Duncan at middleweight. He lands an impressive 5.99 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.75, but has to deal with an eight-inch disadvantage in reach.
With both fighters being kickboxers by trade, this contest will not hit the mat. And a mutual average of zero takedowns per-fight only bolsters that expectation.
However, Petrosyan is powerful enough to negate the range at which Duncan will be striking. So this is a bargain price for someone who will land over 100 significant strikes if it goes the distance.
Nicolas Dalby $7,000
Amongst all the fighters priced below $7,500, Dalby is the one with the highest chance of winning, even if his opponent is kickboxing ace Muslim Salikhov.
They both average over one takedown per 15 minutes, but it should not hit the mat until the later rounds when both men are tired. Dalby is a pressure fighter and has tremendous cardio that is ideal for such situations.
Salikhov also tends to struggle against such fighters, with his July 2022 loss to Li Jingliang being a prime example:
Dalby has less power than Jingliang, but he will not stop moving forward for all three rounds. The Dane is also coming off an impressive performance against Warlley Alves, which saw him land 119 significant strikes en route to a decision victory.
He will not land that many against Salikhov, a man with a 67% success rate of defending strikes. Yet, he can mix things up enough and outwork him to find a win.
