UFC Vegas 73: Best Main Event Props

UFC VEGAS 73: BEST MAIN EVENT PROPS – Two top-15 contenders in the women’s strawweight division will face off this weekend as the UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Number seven-ranked Mackenzie Dern, and number 14-ranked Angela Hill will headline the card in a five-round affair. It is the only ranked fight on the card, but several fighters enjoy putting on a show on the undercard.

Mackenzie Dern is coming off a main-event loss to Xiaonan Yan as she looks to earn her way back into the top five. She is 12-3 in her professional career and has won seven via submission.

Angela Hill is 38 years old and eight years older than Dern. She is 15-12 in her career and is on a two-fight win streak with wins over Emily Ducote and Loopy Godinez.

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Hill to Win by Decision +200

This fight is a clash of two styles. Mackenzie Dern is an elite grappler who is always competing in jiu-jitsu tournaments. Dern is not the best striker, but she is tough and forces her way into positions where she can get things to the mat. Her game plan is not a secret, and Angela Hill knows what Dern wants to do.

Hill is a technical striker who has decent power for the division. She has some TKOs on her record, but that will be an impressive feat against Dern, who has only suffered decision losses.

The best chance for Hill to win this fight is to be disciplined and to keep the fight standing. Even if Dern gets dropped, she will welcome Hill into her guard because she is dangerous on the mat. Hill must remain smart and wait for the ref to stand her up. Hill is at a disadvantage in the grappling department, but she may have good enough wrestling to avoid the takedown for most of the fight.

She should win the fight when standing as she lands nearly three more significant strikes per minute than Dern, who absorbs more strikes than she lands. She must use front kicks to keep Dern guessing when she decides to shoot takedowns. Hill has a high fight IQ, so expect her to employ a good game plan.

Dern to Win by Submission +175

Dern winning by submission is the other half of this coin. This fight almost certainly goes one of two ways: Hill by decision or Dern via submission.

Dern winning a decision is not a crazy idea, but if she controls Hill on the mat, it would be hard to envision a scenario in which she does not secure the submission. Hill is a veteran and knows how to defend against submission threats, but Dern’s jiu-jitsu is on another level. Dern will set things up and react to movements quickly from all positions. 

Dern to Win by Submission in Round 1 +550

Hill’s two losses by submission occurred in the first round of the fight. Rose Namajunas secured a rear naked choke when they met in 2015, and Randa Markos won via armbar in 2019.

She has faced and gone to a decision with multiple fighters who offer submission threats since those fights, which shows her takedown defense has improved along with her defensive jiu-jitsu. Dern is the ultimate test for Hill’s jiu-jitsu and can quickly jump a submission, especially when they are dry and not as sweaty. It is a solid longshot prop for the Dern side.