UFC Vegas 301: Three Best Moneyline Bets

Alessandro Costa (13-4) vs Kevin Borjas (9-2) 

UFC VEGAS 301: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – Costa is looking to get back on the winning track after losing his last fight to Steve Erceg, who fights for the title in the main event. Costa is a BJJ black belt but often looks to impose his will on his opponents by walking them down and landing big shots. He stays consistent with his kicking game but leaves openings to be hurt in return.

It was a blazing hot start for Borjas in his UFC debut last time around, but he fizzled out after the superior striking style of Joshua Van took over and won the final two rounds. That was a solid learning lesson for Borjas, to manage his gas tank better and not look for the kill immediately. Borjas has improving grappling defense, but it’s really his ability to land power combinations on his opponents to put them away.

There has been steady line movement on the Borjas side this week as he has gone down from roughly +140 to +110. I feel there is still enough value left on this line to take a shot on the Peruvian to pull off the upset. Costa leaves too many openings for Borjas to capitalize on, which I think will translate to a knockout win for Borjas. 

The Pick: Kevin Borjas +110 

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Jack Shore (17-1) vs Joanderson Brito (16-3-1) 

It was a successful trip to 145lbs last time out for Shore as he took out Makwan Amirkhani and bucked him from the UFC roster. Shore is a relentless grappler who loves to keep the pace and pressure high on his opponents until he can break them and finish them late. At only 29 years old, there is still plenty of time for Shore to achieve the potential many expected of him when he came into the UFC.

Now riding a four-fight winning streak after dropping his UFC debut, Brito is on a mean streak looking to stamp his arrival into title contention as he continues to add more names to his resume. He is a mad man in the cage that loves to move forward and throw big shots to hurt his opponents. Grappling is a side of the game he leans on when he can’t find the knockout. Although he slows a tad late, he is still very dangerous and can put most opponents away.

This will be a tough task for the Welsh fighter, but I believe Shore has the cardio and pace to keep away from the danger that Brito presents. We saw Pearce do a decent job of controlling Brito through 8 minutes before one mistake gave up his neck and Brito was able to get the tap. I expect Shore to be cleaner with his grappling and keep Brito on the defensive, give me the dog shot on Shore here. 

The Pick: Jack Shore +145 

Jonathan Martinez (19-4) vs Jose Aldo (31-8) 

Martinez started his career on a seven-fight winning streak and he can tie that with a win this weekend. He has really started coming into his own as of late, utilizing his movement and kicking game to mass effect. He’s finished two of his last three opponents by leg kicks, showcasing just how dangerous he is when he can land early and often. Kicks are still the center of his gameplan, and he does not seem the most comfortable exchanging punches.

Retiring in 2022, Aldo stayed active in 2023 with three boxing bouts, in which he went 2-0-1. It seems the UFC has brought him out of retirement to help bolster this card, although it still seems like Aldo is more than happy to get back into action. At 37 years old, he may not completely be over the hill and given how the UFC will match him up could help him be successful. Fast hands, nasty leg kicks, and powerful combinations have been a large part of his success in his legendary career, let’s see if he can bring some of that back this weekend.

All the momentum is on the Martinez side, however, Aldo could be a bad stylistic matchup for him. I’d be surprised if Martinez can slow down Aldo with leg kicks, considering how masterful Aldo has used them himself throughout his career. I feel Aldo can crash the pocket effectively throughout this fight and land big shots on Martinez to find a knockout. If his hand speed is anywhere near what it was before he hung the gloves up, this could be a rough night for Martinez.  

The Pick: Jose Aldo +125