UFC Vegas 103 Main Event Pick
Returning to the Apex this weekend, the UFC brings a plethora of lower weight class fighters to duke it out. The co-main features only 1 of 2 fights above middleweight on the card, as Cody Brundage looks to keep Julian Marquez on a losing streak. Main event honors go to the flyweight division that was originally scheduled to include former title challenger, Brandon Royval. Read more UFC Vegas 103 main event pick.
Manel Kape looks to build upon his dominant December victory over Bruno Silva and position himself for a title shot.
Asu Almabayev takes this short notice opportunity to add another ranked flyweight to his win column.
Will the power striking approach of Kape prove too much? Or will Almabayev be successful with his mix of grappling and striking? Read on to see how these 125ers match up, who will come out on top, and how to make some cash in the process.
Manel Kape
Coming into the UFC with a lot of hype from his RIZIN days, Kape fell flat with back-to-back losses to start his run with the promotion. Luckily, he was able to tap into his finishing ways by finishing 2 of his following 4 victories. In July he ran into a grudge match against Muhammad Mokaev, in a very anticlimactic fight that handed Kape another loss. December marked a big-time performance from Kape, likely the best of his UFC career so far as he brutalized Bruno Silva then finished him in the final round.
What makes Kape so special at 125lbs is the knockout power he carries, which is not something we often see with the smaller weight classes. He has finished 17 of his 20 wins, with 12 of those coming by knockout. Speed, power, and footwork are usually attributed to his success. He cuts angles well, counters effectively, and makes the most of any openings he can exploit. I have ragged on him in the past for his low-volume approach at times, but when he lets it go, he can really set himself apart from his opposition.
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Asu Almabayev
A 13-fight winning streak led Almabayev into his UFC debut back in August 2023. He had a solid strength of schedule before coming to the big show, with one of his losses coming to current UFC flyweight, Tagir Ulanbekov. Almabayev has disposed of all 4 UFC opponents thus far, steadily taking steps up in competition, and looking less dominant in each performance. His last fight was against Matheus Nicolau, a test he successfully passed, but a test that showed some of the holes that may plague him as he tries entering the top 5 of the division.
As you would expect from someone from that side of the world, Almabayev heavily leans on a grapple-heavy approach to win his fights. Once he gets opponents to the ground, he does a good enough job of keeping them down and battering them from top position or finding submissions. When he can’t get opponents down, his striking is passable against most, but it will get harder for him to be successful with it as he faces tougher competition. Although wrestling is his base, the Nicolau fight showed it may not be up to snuff against the top 5 of the division. He still has legit potential, but this weekend will tell us where his ceiling is.
The Pick
I love this matchup. Name value may not be super high here, but stylistically this is such an intriguing clash. The striking of Kape against the grappling of Almabayev. Luckily for Kape, I think his takedown defense and get ups will help him keep this fight in a position where he has the advantage. I expect Kape to land early and often, but I don’t think it will produce a knockout. Almabayev will be trying mightily to grind this fight out and I think his takedown attempts will eat a good portion of the clock. With that said, I don’t mind Kape as a parlay piece, but for the sake of this article, I will lean on the fight to hit the scorecards to extract the best value.
