UFC Vegas 100 Three Best Moneyline Bets
Not often do we see as many wide favorites on UFC cards as we have this weekend. Specifically, 10 of the 12 favorites are -220 or wider. Thus, some of the picks below may be chalkier than you’d like to play straight, so feel free to use them as parlay pieces instead. Read more UFC Vegas 100 three best moneyline bets.
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Melissa Mullins (6-1) vs Klaudia Sygula (6-1)
Coming up short in her last outing against Nora Cornolle, it seemed like the weight miss had a big impact on Mullins’ performance. Mullins usually uses a grapple-heavy approach and does a great job of staying a few steps ahead of her opponents and keeping them on their back. Going the distance is not foreign to her either, so to see her blow her gas tank so quickly last time out was surprising, something I’d chalk up to being an anomaly.
Sygula was not forced to take the normal way to the UFC that we’ve been seeing in recent years. She did not have to compete under the Contender Series banner nor join The Ultimate Fighter. Better yet, she was able to join the promotion strictly off her 6-fight winning streak and competing on the regional scene. Normally looking to grind opponents out, Sygula is quite offensive with her BJJ, although she has only completed one submission in her pro career.
I was surprised to see the UFC sign someone of Sygula’s skill level. She is not that good, and I think she’s up against here against Mullins who is better than her at everything Sygula is good at. Look for Mullins to grind this fight out without much issue and win this on the scorecards.
The Pick: Melissa Mullins -240
Cody Stamann (21-7-1) vs Da’Mon Blackshear (14-7-1)
Currently 2-4 over his last 6 fights, Stamann has largely underachieved through his UFC career. I always expected him to have a more successful career, but he will be turning 35 the day of this fight, usually not an age that is optimal to fight at a high level at this weight class. Stamann has a great all-around game and will always be a tough test for opponents looking to break into the rankings.
Blackshear went to a draw in his short notice UFC debut and is 2-3 since that matchup. He is a BJJ black belt who had a plethora of solid experience on the regional scene before finally being signed to the promotion. He has big power in his hands, but most of his success comes from dragging opponents to the mat and finding submissions or dominant positions to control. His gas tank is a little suspect, though.
I’m quite surprised to see Blackshear at such a chalky line. In my opinion, Stamann is the better overall fighter, and his defensive grappling should allow him to keep this fight in a striking range that he should be more effective in. Mix in his cardio edge, he should pull away in deep water and win on the scorecards. He is an auto-bet at this line.
The Pick: Cody Stamann +220
Luana Pinheiro (11-3) vs Gillian Robertson (14-8)
After a solid 3-0 start to her time with the UFC, Pinheiro now finds herself on a two-fight losing streak, showcasing the issues I’ve long hammered that she has. She is athletic and physical, also has a good judo game. However, as we’ve seen from the Ribas and Hill fights, she struggles to be effective in deep water and can’t keep up with opponents that set a high pace.
Robertson is looking for the first three-fight winning streak of her pro career. She looks to build upon the dominant performance she had over Michelle Waterson-Gomez back in June, using her classic grapple heavy approach to keep her in bad spots. As she has claimed herself, she is a submission over position fighter, all gas, and no brakes.
Pinheiro can make things difficult for Robertson early, but I think Pinheiro will start to falter under the pace that Robertson will be looking to set. Look for Robertson to wear Pinheiro down and submit her in the second round of this fight. The under 2.5 is not a bad look either.
The Pick: Gillian Robertson -375
