UFC Vegas 100 Main Event Best Bet
Although there have been more than 100 shows at the Apex, counting PPV events during COVID, this weekend will mark the 100th fight night taking place from the UFC’s headquarters. There have been plenty of great main events, but it’s unfortunate the athletes did not have a live crowd to soak it all in with. Regardless, this weekend welterweights throw down in a fight that could be a passing-of-the-torch. Read more UFC Vegas 100 main event best bet.Â
Neil Magny looks to put his veteran savvy on display and bounce back from a loss to prospect Michael Morales from earlier this year.
Carlos Prates continues to rack up wins and finishes, taking steady steps up in competition to reach contender-status.
Will there be a veteran lesson on display this weekend? Or will Prates get to his muay thai and dispatch of another opponent? Read on to see how this clash will shake out this weekend and what you should back with your cash.
Hey, while you’re at it, click here to check out our Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks!
Neil Magny
The most success we’ve ever seen from Magny is a 7-fight winning streak from 2014-2015. Unfortunately, he ran into Demian Maia and was choked out to keep him from winning his 8th in a row. Since then, he has never been able to put together anything longer than a 3-fight winning streak. Success has also been harder to come by at this stage of his career as he has been exchanging wins and losses since March 2022, going 4-4 over his last 8 fights. He has established himself as a gatekeeper to contendership in recent years. In January Magny was able to fend off the oncoming Mike Malott but fell short against Michael Morales in August.
What has made Magny so successful has been his ability to weaponize his cardio, pace, and pressure. He utilizes a ton of movement and looks to break his opponents in the clinch with pressure and activity. Where he has come up short is against fighters that are much better strikers than him, specifically kickers, and guys that can take advantage of his grappling flaws. Even then, fighters with those skills need to be significantly better than him in those realms and have the gas tank to go into deep waters in case they can’t put him away.
Carlos Prates
An August 2023 win on the Contender Series gave Prates a spot on the UFC roster. Since then, he has finished three-straight opponents, putting them all away within two rounds and by knockout. It’s been impressive to see him take gradual steps up in competition, most recently knocking out a very durable and experienced Jingliang Li. In the grand scheme of things, Prates is on a 10-fight winning streak that stretches back to 2019.
Muay thai and kickboxing is the name of the game for Prates. With that, you can expect almost all his opponents to expose the grappling flaw in his game, but we’ve seen him consistently prevent that from happening. His takedown defense is high level, especially with doing the small things to keep fights upright and at space where he can operate and do his best work. Combination striking, leg kicks, and movement has been the key to his success. Now at 31, Prates is firmly entrenched in his prime and ready to leap into contendership, especially if he can get a win this weekend.
The Pick
It’s tough to get behind a -750 favorite, which is when we are forced to look elsewhere to extract some value out of this fight. Prates has the exact level of striking advantage to pick apart Magny and find a finish. I feel as though it will take a little while for that damage to accrue and impact Magny, which is why I am going to lean on a specific prop on FanDuel. I expect this fight to reach round 3 which pays slight plus money. I think Magny could have some early success and make this competitive, but I think it will be a gradual wave of success from Prates that gets him the finish going into the main event rounds.
