UFC Tampa Main Event Best Bet
And just like that, the end of the 2024 UFC calendar is upon us. The promotion heads south, setting up shop in Tampa, Florida for their last event of the year. As of the writing of this article, 14 fights are scheduled to conclude a memorable year, culminating with a welterweight headliner that could volley a contender into title discussions. Read more Tampa main event best bet.
Former interim champion and multiple time title challenger, Colby Covington, makes his return after a failed attempt at wrestling away the title from Leon Edwards last year.
Joaquin Buckley has finally surpassed the highlight reel spinning back kick knockout from a few years ago and has violently put together a five-fight winning streak.
Will the UFC’s bad boy halt Buckley’s momentum? Or will a sixth straight victory be awarded to Buckley this weekend? Read on to see how these two styles clash and how we can make the most of it from a betting angle.
Hey, while you’re at it, click here to check out our Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks!
Colby Covington
Everyone knows the story of Colby Covington nearly being released by the UFC back in 2017. Apparently, his wrestling style was too boring for the UFC brass, and they wanted none of him, even though he was boasting an impressive 12-1 record. That’s when the bad boy schtick came along, prompting a large portion of the MMA fan base to turn against him.
Love him or hate him, people came out to watch him fight, just like Floyd Mayweather was able to cultivate a following of haters and fans alike. Covington would go on to win the interim welterweight title in 2018, but three attempts at trying to win the undisputed title (2x vs Usman & 1x vs Edwards) came up empty. With his 37th birthday looming in February, Covington is lucky to still have the backing of the UFC and willingly put him in positions to get another title shot.
Alternating wins and losses dating back in 2019, Covington has competed for the undisputed welterweight title in 3 of his last 5 fights. His relentless wrestling and high output striking style usually makes him one of the hardest fighters to compete against, especially when he was in his prime. In his last fight against Edwards, he seemed slow and lethargic. Showing glimpses of his old self in the final round, it was just too little too late for him by then. This weekend will be a good tell whether he still has it or not.
Joaquin Buckley
Coming into the UFC back in mid-2020 with a 10-2 record, many didn’t expect too much from Buckley. He seemed like a heavy-handed headhunter with not much else to his game. He would go 5-4 over his first 9 fights with the promotion at 185lbs, which prompted his move down to 170lbs. Since then, he has been undefeated, going 5-0 and coming through with 3 finishes. Most recently, he knocked out Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson in the final round of their October clash.
Buckley has done a phenomenal job of turning his headhunting style into a more complete MMA approach. He uses his power to crash the pocket and either engage in the clinch or look for takedowns. Mixing up his targets well with combinations allows Buckley to catch his opponents off guard with whatever his next move will be.
Another aspect of his game that is significantly improved is his ability to manage his gas tank. Looking for the knockout from the first bell used to drain him of his energy in deep water, but now he manages his energy much better which allows him to be more effective over 15 minutes. We will see this weekend how he fairs over 25 minutes (if needed) in his first UFC main event spot.
The Pick
This fight has me quite split. I’ve always been a big Covington believer and have planted my flag that he was a top 5 pound-for-pound fighter when he and Kamaru Usman were ruling the welterweight division. However, seeing that performance against Leon Edwards last time makes it hard to instill confidence that he can do what he used to do and put a pace on guys. If he does show even 70% of what he used to be, this is a great underdog spot for him.
I’d suggest even taking his decision prop at +350 to be the best way to bet him if you want to go with him. I believe Buckley has made the necessary improvements in his takedown defense in the past 2-3 years that can assist him in this fight so he can let his hands go and eventually find the stoppage. This may be one of the weaker and less confidence spots I’ve done for this article, but I’ll have to go with Buckley by KO. If Buckley can withstand the early takedown and pace setting from Covington, I expect him to start landing often, which I don’t think Covington will be able to eat at this stage of his career.
