UFC St. Louis Main Event Pick

UFC ST. LOUIS MAIN EVENT PICK – It is refreshing to see the UFC head back out onto the road after shacking up at the Apex for as many events as they have. This weekend, they head down to St. Louis, Missouri for the first time in over 6.5 years. That night provided a featherweight main event, but the UFC decided to bring out the big guns and go with heavyweights.

Derrick Lewis intends on erasing his November defeat to Jailton Almeida with a dominant win this weekend.

Brazilian, Rodrigo Nascimento, looks to make good on his first UFC main event and make the most of the spotlight he is being given. 

Will The Black Beast reign supreme? Or will Nascimento add to the woes of Lewis’ career? Read on to see how these two big boys match up and how this fight should play out.

Hey, while you’re at it, click here to check out our Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks!

Derrick Lewis 

There have been multiple opportunities for Lewis to achieve UFC gold, but he has come up short in those spots against more formidable opponents. His last opportunity was against Ciryl Gane back in August 2021, a fight in which he got chopped away at until he was finished in the third round. Since then, Lewis has gone 2-4 with a three-fight losing streak sandwiched in there. He is either coming through with his finishing power early or getting finished himself.

Surprisingly in his last fight, he managed to survive a full 25 minutes with Jailton Almeida smothering him with top pressure and grappling. 
 
Lewis has largely been reduced to relying on his knockout power for wins. There is not much technique associated to his game. His grappling is usually all defensive and it pertains to him just muscling out of bad spots rather than looking to use technique.

Lewis’s power late in fights has been present throughout his career which allows him to stay dangerous as long as he is in a fight. However, fighters that utilize a little discipline, technique, and patience, will eventually be able to find the opening and put him away.

Rodrigo Nascimento

Coming into the UFC with an undefeated record back in 2020, Nascimento made short work of Don’Tale Mayes. He then ran into Chris Daukaus who showcased superior hand speed and accuracy, something Nascimento was not ready for.

However, since that matchup, Nascimento has gone undefeated and showcasing a solid all-around skill set. Winning three straight decisions instills confidence that he can go a hard 15 minutes and still get his hand raised.

As of 2019, Nascimento is a BJJ brown belt, so it would surprise me if he has not advanced to a black belt yet. Nascimento has a solid striking game, using combinations and a stinging jab to establish his range.

I think where he is more effective will be in the grappling game by taking opponents to the ground and smashing them from top position. That will be very important for him, especially this weekend. Lastly, his affiliation with American Top Team will aid him in devising a gameplan, something that has clearly been effective for him in recent years.

The Pick

I was a tad surprised to see Nascimento as the dog here, but he is a relative unknown to the popularity that Lewis brings to the table. Of course, Lewis will threaten with the heavy power he always has, but I think Nascimento has a good enough ground game to drag this to the mat and wear on Lewis, eventually opening a finishing opportunity.

Many will counter by saying Almeida was unable to get him out of there, but as a rebuttal there have been a handful of other fighters who have been able to close the show against Lewis on the mat. It will be dangerous if Lewis is in the fight, but I expect Nascimento to play this safe and wait for his opportunity to drag this to the mat and get to work where Lewis is not as threatening. 

Nascimento +140