UFC Saudi Arabia DFS Picks
There are two mainstays to play DFS for MMA; DraftKings and FanDuel. Each has its own scoring rules and variations, but they are similar. Here are DraftKings’ scoring rules and FanDuel’s scoring rules. I will always list fighters I think should be selected as MVP at the top and will use DraftKings budget to model my projections. Read below for UFC Saudi Arabia DFS picks.
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MVP Pick
Shara Magomedov $8,800
Shara “Bullet” Magomedov is 12-0 and won a tough fight against Bruno Silva in his UFC debut. He is fighting Antonio Trocoli, 12-3, with one no-contest. Magomedov is a -550 favorite, and the under 1.5 rounds are favored at -140. Trocoli is a short-notice opponent, and he has a tough challenge ahead of him.
Magomedov is sharp on his feet, landing 73% of his strikes in his first fight. He is Russian and has solid wrestling despite getting taken down three times by Silva. The short-notice nature of this fight has me leaning towards a stoppage, and it likely comes at the hands of “Bullet.”
Other Picks
Rinat Fakhretdinov $9,200
One of the most interesting fights on the card is a welterweight bout between Rinat Fakhretdinov and Nicolas Dalby. Dalby is constantly deemed an underdog in his fights but has no quit.
He has won his last four fights and five of his last six against tough opponents. Fakhretdinov will be the toughest opponent of his career. Fakhretdinov is an elite wrestler who averages 4.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Dalby’s takedown defense is only 60%, and he was taken down three times in his last fight against Gabriel Bonfim.
Fakhretdinov will be able to hold him there, unlike Bonfim, and coast to a victory.
Sergei Pavlovich $8,700
Two heavyweights will be the co-main event in Saudi Arabia and will not last long. Sergei Pavlovich is one of the scariest men in the division, with legitimate punching power.
The fight is -425 to end inside distance, and Pavlovich is -145 to win by knockout. His opponent, Alexander Volkov, is not a fighter known for knockouts but is capable. He is also skilled on the ground, winning his last fight by submission. Pavlovich and Volkov have trained together, and Pavlovich supposedly knocked him out, which is what I predict to happen.
Johnny Walker $8,200
Johnny Walker and Volkan Oezdemir are in a near coin-flip fight in the light heavyweight division. The fight is -235 to end inside the distance, and both men sit around +200 to win by knockout. Walker lost his last fight against Magomed Ankalaev via knockout but looked much improved in his three wins prior.
Oezdemir is 34 and is 19-7 in his career. He is a skilled striker but will not have many surprises for Walker. Walker has a seven-inch reach advantage and should find Oezdemir’s chin.
Kyung Ho Kang $7,700
Kyung Ho Kang is one of my favorite underdogs on this card. He is +136 to beat Muin Gafurov, who is 18-6 overall but has lost all three UFC fights. Kang is 19-10 with one no-contest but has a good record in the UFC (8-4). Kang has a five-inch reach advantage and a slight edge on the feet.
He defends 55% of strikes, and both men absorb about the same amount of strikes they deal. Kang has a better chance to win this fight than the odds imply and is a good value for DFS.
Daniel Rodriguez $7,300
Kelvin Gastelum is having trouble cutting enough weight to make 170 pounds, and the fight will take place at middleweight or catchweight. Daniel Rodriguez has the advantage because he will not have to cut as much weight as Gastelum.
“D-Rod” is a +190 underdog, but I expect the odds to move in his favor as the fight nears. Gastelum has one of the best chins in the promotion, but I would not be surprised if Rodriguez hurts him with his powerful calf kicks.
