UFC São Paulo: Three Best Moneyline Bets

Kaue Fernandes (8-1) vs Marc Diakiese (16-7)

Kaue Fernandes

Making his UFC debut this weekend at UFC São Paulo, Fernandes has back-to-back quick wins in the LFA. This has paved the way for him to get signed directly to the UFC. Check out my UFC São Paulo: three best moneyline bets below.

He is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, who trains under the Nova Uniao banner. His lone defeat came when he was unable to do anything effective off his back in the final two rounds. He seems to trust his submission game a little too much, which allows opponents to grind him out.

Related: UFC São Paulo: Main Event Prediction

His explosiveness and power early needs to be respected, but outside of that he usually falls off a cliff after the first round

Marc Diakiese

Diakiese is riding a two-fight losing streak. After having a very dominant two-fight winning streak that included landing 19 takedowns and controlling 27 of 30 minutes of cage time.

He was mainly known as a flashy striker before. If you dig deeper, you could see he always had the wrestling path in his fights. It is just now more pronounced considering it was his main gameplan.

Unfortunately, Michael Johnson put a halt to that by stuffing takedowns and battering the desperate Diakiese. His last fight has an asterisk on it considering the finish stemmed from an accidental headbutt that put Diakiese’s lights out for a second. He is now looking for redemption and to avoid his first ever three-fight losing streak.

The Pick

Fernandes is a fun prospect, but his knack for playing off his back too much will come back to bite him in the rear end. Diakiese has good enough submission defense, if he doesn’t get hurt by a headbutt in the proces. That should keep him out of any real danger.

On the feet, Diakiese will be more than competitive to stay out of danger from the early finishing threat of Fernandes. I see Diakiese utilizing his wrestle-heavy approach to stave off Fernandes and win a classic Diakiese decision

The Pick: Marc Diakiese -185

Angela Hill (15-13) vs Denise Gomes (8-2)

Angela Hill

It’s been a tumultuous post-covid era run for Hill as she is 3-6 over her last nine fights. She had a solid two-fight winning streak recently that saw her turn away hot prospects like Lupita Godinez and Emily Ducote. However, she continues to come up short against the more tenured and experienced fighters.

Hill’s volume-heavy style and footwork has allowed her to run up the significant strike count on most of her opponents. This always makes her a live underdog, especially if she is able to keep fights in the striking realm.

Gomes dropped her UFC debut to Loma Lookboonme,e but has bounced back with emphatic finishes over her last two fights.

Looking to knock her opponents out with her big power, Gomes normally stalks her opponents with forward pressure and big punches. She does a great job of staying in their face and putting them in uncomfortable positions. Takedowns are not out of the question, but I believe she prefers the striking realm more than anything.

Denise Gomes

I feel this will be a tough mountain for Gomes to overcome, considering the experience difference she will be at in this fight.

The speed, volume, and experience of Hill will allow her to thwart the pressure of Gomes. I don’t think Gomes has a good enough wrestling game to repeatedly get the fight to the mat and dominate Hill. Hill is always a solid underdog to back and her recent performances over Godinez and Ducote are proof of that.

The Pick: Angela Hill +125

Rodrigo Nascimento (10-1) vs Don’Tale Mayes (10-5)

Rodrigo Nascimento

Suffering his first professional loss back in October 2020, Nascimento technically has a two-fight winning streak. Although, he did have a victory over Alan Baudot that was overturned due to a USADA violation.

Nascimento has made huge strides in his game since joining American Top Team. He has figured out how to use his power striking style to compliment his smothering top game from his grappling. He will be 31 at the end of the month, which is the prime age for a heavyweight to make a run.

Don’Tale Mayes

Plenty of bettors have gotten burnt by Don’Tale Mayes in the past. Yet, he always presents a complete enough game to consider him in most fights.

He is a hybrid heavyweight in the fact that he can go a solid 15 minutes if needed but also can put his opponent’s lights out like he did last time around against Andrei Arlovski. He can be out-grinded, out-worked, and out-pointed, but he can also benefit from those things depending on the level of opposition he is given.

The Pick

This is a rematch that nobody asked for but seemingly made sense to the UFC brass considering the state of both of their careers. Nascimento submitted Mayes back in May 2020 after having a solid first round that he won on all three judges’ scorecards.

Mayes could have gotten better with his grappling defense in that amount of time, but I still feel Nascimento is far superior to him. The only concern I would have is if Nascimento decides to strike longer than he should as Mayes can replicate what Chris Daukaus did to Nascimento.

However, Nascimento really seems to be coming into his own here, knowing when he has the grappling advantage over his opponents and when to use it. This is one of those situations. Chalky, but we’ve seen him do it before and it feels like he can do it again.

The Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento -200