UFC Macau Main Event Best Bet
There are few things that get me hyped for a UFC card like an early morning or afternoon card. That is what we have this weekend as the UFC heads back to Macau for the first time in over 10 years. A 3 am ET start time for the prelims leads into a main card that starts at 6am ET. Road to UFC culminates this weekend too, but there are a pair of former champions headlining the card, hoping to get a step closer to recapturing former glory. Read UFC Macau main event best bet.
Petr Yan looks to build upon his March victory over Yadong Song, a win that snapped a three-fight losing streak.
Deiveson Figueiredo wants to join a rare company by winning a title in a second division, adding to the flyweight title already on his mantle.
Can the Russian bring back the hype he had going into his March 2021 title defense? Or will the Brazilian spoil Yan’s plans and position himself for a bantamweight title shot? Read on to see how these dynamic strikers match up and who should come out on top.
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Petr Yan
It does not feel like that long ago that Yan was the talk of the town. Entering the UFC with an 8-1 record, avenging the lone defeat as well, and producing a vicious round one knockout in his debut back in 2018, it was clear Yan was headed for big things. Six-straight wins earned him a shot against Jose Aldo and the vacant title. He passed that test with flying colors, finishing Aldo in the final round. Unfortunately, that’s when the tough times arrived for Yan.
His next fight was the infamous illegal knee that saw him lose the title to Aljamain Sterling. That made way for a 2-3, which included all three of his losses coming in a row, with two of them being by split decision. We finally saw a classic Yan performance last time out against Yadong Song which brings him to a pivotal matchup this weekend.
The biggest flaw in Yan’s game is that he is a slow starter. It is not often that he wins the first round, but he picks up a whole lot of steam after that. Many, including myself, believe it is by design so he can use that first round to pick up on opponent’s tendencies, range, speed, and possible game plan. In the second round he starts letting go with his combinations and really starts putting the hurting on his opponents. 5 of his 8 finishes have come in the second round or later, otherwise he goes on to win by decision after being more effective with a damage-based approach.
Deiveson Figueiredo
Once upon a time, Figueiredo was the most feared flyweight on the planet. An 11-0 record brought him into the UFC in mid-2017. He would win his first four fights, finishing three of them. That gave way to a loss to high-level flyweight at the time, Jussier Formiga. Figueiredo bounced back with a win over the eventual champion, Alexandre Pantoja, then another quick submission victory over Tim Elliott made way for a title shot.
He would go on to win and defend the title once before winning it a second time and losing it quickly after. That’s when he decided to move to 135lbs, a smart move considering he is a month shy of his 37th birthday and we all know that weight cut was no walk in the park.
It’s almost been a full year since Figgy has been at 135lbs, putting together three straight wins over notable bantamweights. Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon Vera were all victims of a new and improved version of Figueiredo. Usually depending on his power and finishing abilities, Figueiredo has been a lot more reserved and methodical as a bantamweight.
Grappling is the primary path to victory for him now, but when that doesn’t work out, he uses his power striking style deliberately to capitalize on openings. That’s what earned him the third round against Vera last time out when he couldn’t get the takedown going after round one.
The Pick
This should be competitive for about 1.5 rounds, after that I expect Yan to start picking up the pace and overwhelming Figueiredo. Yan’s defensive grappling is too good to get caught in bad positions for extended periods of time.
Once Yan establishes his range and offense, Figueiredo will begin to slow and show more openings that Yan can take advantage of. I’m expecting Yan to find the final opening in round 3 or 4, where he can overwhelm Figgy and find the finish by TKO. I think Yan is parlayable at -300, but I will leave you guys with specific props I feel have a good shot of hitting.
Petr Yan to win via (T)KO in R4 +1100
Petr Yan to win via (T)KO in R5 +1500
