UFC Louisville Fantasy Picks

There are two mainstays to play DFS for MMA; DraftKings and FanDuel. Each has its own scoring rules and variations, but they are similar. Here are DraftKings’ scoring rules and FanDuel’s scoring rules. I will always list fighters I think should be selected as MVP at the top and will use DraftKings budget to model my projections. Read below for UFC 302 fantasy picks. 

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MVP Pick

Julian Marquez $8,300

Marquez is taking on Zach Reese in a middleweight fight, where he will have a five-inch reach disadvantage. Reese is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Cody Brundage.

Marquez is coming off back-to-back losses to Marc-Andre Barriault and Gregory Rodrigues, both formidable opponents. Neither guy has landed a takedown in their UFC careers, so it should be a striking battle and likely wins by finish. Marquez has shown a better chin than Reese, so Marquez is the side to play for DFS.

Other Picks

Brunno Ferreira $9,400

Brunno Ferreira is a wide favorite against Dustin Stoltzfus, and the fight is likely not going the distance. Ferreira has beaten much higher-level opponents in his four-fight UFC career than Stoltzfus has since joining the promotion in 2020.

Ferreira is also -150 to win by knockout, so it is wise to back him in this fight and play him in DFS because of the high-scoring upside.

Rayanne dos Santos $9,100

The first fight is a women’s strawweight bout between Rayanne dos Santos and Puja Tomar, who is making her UFC debut. It is not the highest-level fight for the promotion, but it could be a good play for DFS.

It is strange for dos Santos to have this high price tag after losing on Dana White’s Contender Series and in her UFC debut. Tomar is an experienced fighter from One Championship but did not fare well going 1-3. Rayanne dos Santos should have the grappling advantage and may lock up a submission to win on her birthday.

Miguel Baeza $8,700

Miguel Baeza is taking on Punahele Soriano in a welterweight fight and should win this fight with his pressure-style striking. Soriano has not landed more than 40 significant strikes in his last two fights and got finished in each. Baeza got knocked out in his previous two fights, but they were against Andre Fialho and Khaos Williams, both fighters with lots of power. The odds for this fight to go the distance is +240, and Baeza is -105 to win inside the distance on DraftKings, so he is the side to back.

Jared Cannonier $7,600

Jared Cannonier is 40 years old but does not have the number of fights of fighters who are typically slowing down at this age. He looked in the best form of his career in his last fight against Marvin Vettori. It will be under a year since that fight because he had to take time off due to injury, but he is taking on the seventh-ranked Nassourdine Imavov.

This fight is a near-coin flip on DraftKings, with Cannonier being the slight underdog. He may be slightly less owned because of the odds, and that is a solid spot to take advantage of for DFS. I expect Cannonier to look as good and hungry as ever against the younger Imavov.

Ricky Turcios $6,900

Turcios is a bit of a longshot in his fight against Raul Rosas Jr., but he will have the experience advantage. Rosas Jr. is only 19 years old and still growing into his body, while Turcios is 31 and looking to prove himself.

The one area to be concerned for Turcios is his 45% takedown defense, but he has shown the ability to get up quickly once taken down. He has been taken down six times on two occasions in the UFC and won both fights by split decision. The odds for this fight should be closer to a coin flip, which makes Turcios a great value play for DFS.