UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen Main Event Prediction

UFC FIGHT NIGHT: HOLLOWAY VS. ALLEN MAIN EVENT PREDICTION – Alexander Volkanovski is in the midst of cementing himself as the greatest featherweight to ever step foot in the Octagon. Meanwhile, the rest of the division is trying to sort itself out to determine who will be a worthy adversary after his July title unification bout with Yair Rodriguez.

Now 0-3 against the reigning champion, Max Holloway looks to find himself and determine where he fits in the top five of the division.

The 19-1 Arnold Allen is the fresh new face in the top five. He hopes to secure a title shot at the end of the year with a win this weekend.

Can Holloway fend off the emerging Brit? Or will ‘Almighty’ break through and earn his shot at the gold? Read on to find out how these fiery featherweights match up and if there are any odds to take advantage of.

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Max Holloway

There have been few eras in the Featherweight division. There was the Jose Aldo Era. The very brief Conor McGregor era. And the Aldo era once again, until Aldo ran into Max Holloway. Twice.

Holloway was long considered untouchable based on the performances he was having while winning and defending his featherweight title. He wasn’t just beating guys; he was dragging them into deep waters and finishing them.

Holloway in His Prime

At his best, Holloway has unprecedented cardio, volume, and tenacity.

He holds four out of the top five spots for most significant strikes landed in a UFC fight. I don’t think anything will ever top his god-like performance back in January 2021 when he landed 578 significant strikes on Calvin Kattar. It was one of the greatest striking displays anyone had ever witnessed.

His durability has allowed him to eat some big shots from opponents in the past, but he marches through them and lands a plethora of his own.

His ground game isn’t too shabby either, but he has been so engulfed in his striking success that he has mainly resorted to that as of late.

He is 16-4 over his last 20 fights, with those losses only coming to Alexander Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier. He is an elite fighter and the fact he is only 31 leads up to believe he still has many big things ahead of him.

Arnold Allen

With a stellar 19-1 record, Allen has quietly ascended the featherweight rankings.

A lot of that has to do with the fact that he hasn’t been very active since joining the promotion in 2015. He has only competed 10 times in the last 8 years.

To put that into perspective, a typical UFC fighter normally competes 3 times a year. However, this slow approach to the top of the division has seemingly paid off for him.

His three wins in the covid era were significant. Finishing the likes of Calvin Kattar and Dan Hooker is no easy feat, although both of those fights could have an asterisk beside them.

The Kattar fight saw the fight ended due to an unfortunate knee injury Kattar suffered. And in the Hooker fighter, it seemed as though Hooker came in compromised attempting to make a weight he could no longer do so in a healthy fashion.

Allen noticed this and put his foot on the gas immediately and took advantage of the compromised state Hooker was in.

At his best, Allen is a patient striker, biding his time to eventually spring into action and land several good power strikes.

He does a solid job defensively to nullify most of his opponent’s attacks, but in doing so allows his opponents to get ahead on volume.

He has decent takedowns and solid control, but it’s obvious he does his best work when he can out-strike his opponents. Just looking at most of Allen’s fights, you see how low volume his fights tend to be.

Unless he has a significant youth and skill advantage like he did in the Gilbert Melendez and Nik Lentz fights.

The Pick

I feel like this is a great fight for Holloway to remind folks that he is still the second best fighter in the division.

His combination of output, volume, cardio, and pace will end up being too much for Allen.

As Allen started to slow down in his fight against Sodiq Yusuff, I expect the same here as Holloway starts to put the pace and numbers on Allen.

I’d be surprised if Allen is able to produce a finish given the durability of Holloway and I’d be even more surprised if Allen is able to win a decision against the volume-based style of Holloway.

I’m expecting a classic Holloway performance here as he pulls away late and produces a finish in the fourth or fifth round.

Max Holloway (-165)