UFC Abu Dhabi Three Best Moneyline Bets
Tony Ferguson (25-10) vs Michael Chiesa (16-7)
What a turn of events it’s been for Ferguson over the last ten years. From being considered the best lightweight on the planet by accruing a 12-fight winning streak, to now people begging you to hang the gloves up after dropping 7-straight fights leading into this weekend. Ferguson often drags his opponents into chaos and beats them there, unfortunately the blueprint is out on how to beat him, and opponents have used it to good effect. Read UFC Abu Dhabi three best moneyline bets below.Â
Chiesa is on a three-fight losing streak of his own and it’s clear he is not taking competing as seriously as he has in the past. With gigs in the commentary and analyst sphere, Chiesa has only competed once in the last three years. Usually leaning on a wrestle-heavy approach, Chiesa often finds himself getting caught in submissions, which 5 of his 7 losses.
It’s hard to convince someone to wager on a fighter that is on a seven-fight losing streak, but when he is still a submission threat against a guy who often gets submitted, it’s worth a consideration. Especially when the consideration includes taking the dog at near 5-to-1 odds. Leaning more into the SUB prop around +800, I think Ferguson is worth a shot to submit a very flakey Chiesa this weekend.
The Pick: Tony Ferguson +465
Hey, while you’re at it, click here to check out our Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks! 
Marlon Vera (23-9-1) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (23-3-1)
I get the back story, but I really think it was a waste of time to have Marlon Vera face Sean O’Malley last time, especially with him only coming off one victory, a controversial one as well. Vera is showing his ceiling as he will likely come up short against the top of the division but can beat the aging veterans or guys that have durability issues. He is a slow starter who picks up steam in deep water, but sometimes he has trouble finding the on switch.
Now 2-0 since turning his attention to 135lbs, this former flyweight champion aspires of winning another belt before hanging it up. Figueiredo used to struggle to make 125lbs, so it was a no-brainer for him to move up a weight class at this stage of his career. Things have worked out quite well for him, especially with how well he is starting to implement a grapple-heavy approach and not just to take off his opponent’s head.
Vera could be a little tricky to deal with, but I really expect Figueiredo to be strong and physical enough to put Vera in bad positions. I suspect we’ll see Figueiredo use his calf kicks to slow Vera down then start wrestling to keep him on the mat. It’s hard to finish Vera, so I think Figueiredo will play this as safe as possible and try to accrue enough control time while landing steady damage.
The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo -145
Shara Magomedov (13-0) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-8)
The UFC’s new toy is making his second walk to the cage in the span of 1.5 months, catering to the middle east as much as possible. I think fans are starting to see that his image probably precedes his actual talent level, that the first L is around the corner. At his best, Magomedov operates at distance, using a kick-heavy style to dish out damage. His takedown defense is suspect and his lack of work off his back is a glaring hole in his game.
Oleksiejczuk is just two months removed from seemingly having his arm broken by Kevin Holland. That was a fight where we saw the classic Oleksiejczuk pressure, dropping Holland. Unfortunately, he followed the BJJ black belt to the ground and paid for that decision by getting trapped in an armbar. Oleksiejczuk is a pressure-first fighter who loves using his boxing to break his opponents. He does not discriminate with his targets, working the body well until he can start letting go on the feet.
On paper, Oleksiejczuk seems to have the exact style to cause Magomedov issues. Crowding Magomedov’s space and not allowing him to get off on his kicks will let Oleksiejczuk get off on his own offense and slowly break Magomedov down. Of course, Oleksiejczuk has a bit of a durability issue to worry about, but I think he can push the pace here and finish Magomedov down the stretch.Â
