UFC Abu Dhabi DFS Picks
There are two mainstays to play DFS for MMA; DraftKings and FanDuel. Each has its own scoring rules and variations, but they are similar. Here are DraftKings’ scoring rules and FanDuel’s scoring rules. I will always list fighters I think should be selected as MVP at the top and will use DraftKings budget to model my projections. Read below for UFC Abu Dhabi DFS picks.
MVP Pick
Umar Nurmagomedov $9,200
Umar Nurmagomedov is fighting Cory Sandhagen in the main event on Saturday. The winner likely gets a title shot against the winner of Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili. Nurmagomedov is a -340 favorite and has a clear path to victory. He lands 4.51 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Sandhagen only defends 64% of takedowns. Sandhagen is primarily a striker and has not fought a wrestler the level of Nurmagomedov.
TJ Dillashaw controlled Sandhagen for over eight minutes and only landed two of 19 takedowns in that five-round fight. Nurmagomedov will land takedowns, and Sandhagen will have trouble returning to his feet once on his back. Sandhagen could land a knockout when they are striking, but I expect Nurmagomedov to implement a solid game plan and control Sandhagen on the mat.
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Other Picks
Michael Chiesa $9,500
Michael Chiesa is a solid option this week but expensive. He is fighting Tony Ferguson, who is a shell of himself. It would be a different story if this fight happened five years ago, but Ferguson has not been a tough opponent lately.
Ferguson is on a seven-fight losing streak, albeit against some of the best opponents at lightweight and welterweight. Chiesa should be bigger, stronger, and faster in aspects of this fight despite being on a three-fight losing streak. He also lands 3.33 takedowns per 15 minutes, which should be his easiest path to victory against Ferguson.
Viktoriia Dudakova $8,500
The third fight of the night is between Victoriia Dudakova and Sam Hughes at Strawweight. Hughes has been in the UFC since 2020, but her record (3-5) is not the best.
She is tough and can take a punch but is weak against good wrestlers. Dudakova lands 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Hughes has defended 57% of takedowns in the UFC. She will likely mix things up against Hughes and implement a well-rounded game plan against an opponent in which she has striking and wrestling advantages.
Elves Brener $7,900
There are many expensive options on this slate, so we will have to take some shots with a few fighters with cheaper salaries. Brener is 3-1 in the UFC and is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Myktybek Orolbai, but it was a competitive fight. Brener is fighting Joel Alvarez, who is 5-2 in the UFC. Alvarez is comfortable on the mat with 17 submission victories as a professional, but it may hurt him in this fight.
Brener has high-level BJJ and will be a tough opponent to submit. He also lands 1.59 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Alvarez only defends 11% of takedowns because he is dangerous on his back with submissions. Brener should be able to control the action on the mat from the top position and force Alvarez to defend takedowns or strikes, which makes this fight more competitive than the current odds suggest.
Rolando Bedoya $7,600
Rolando Bedoya is fighting Jai Herbert in the second fight of the night in the lightweight division. Bedoya has had two losses in the UFC but showed good skills in those fights.
He is active on the feet, landing 8.70 significant strikes and absorbing 6.83 significant strikes per minute. Herbert lands and absorbs significant strikes at a ratio of 2.69-3.15, with an accuracy of 41%. Bedoya should be able to limit the damage taken in this matchup, and his pressure will cause problems for Herbert.
Denis Tiuliulin $7,300
The first fight on the prelims is a middleweight matchup between Sedriques Dumas and Denis Tiuliulin. Tiuliulin is 1-4 in the UFC, and Dumas is 3-2, but Tiuliulin has fought tougher opponents. Dumas lands 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Tiuliulin defends 73% of takedowns, so this fight should occur on the feet.
Dumas is not active when striking, only landing 1.76 significant strikes per 15 minutes. He also has shown a below-average fight IQ in the UFC and makes mistakes. Tiuliulin is a +190 underdog but could win via knockout if he pressures Dumas early and avoids takedowns.
