UFC 80: Dawson vs. Green Main Event Prediction

UFC 80: DAWSON VS. GREEN MAIN EVENT PREDICTION – It’s been a long time coming for Grant Dawson to finally get his main event opportunity. With an impressive 20-1-1 record, people have been waiting to see Dawson tested against some of the names that the lightweight division has to offer. He gets his wish this weekend!

Dawson will be looking to stretch his undefeated run to 13 fights.

Bobby Green will be looking to spoil the party and hand out a veteran lesson.

Will Dawson’s relentless grappling approach prevail once again? Or will Green’s experience and veteran savvy shine through?

Read on to see how these lightweights matchup and if there is anywhere to pull some cash out of this fight.

Grant Dawson

An impressive submission victory on the 2017 season of Dana White’s Contender Series earned Dawson a contract with the UFC and he has yet to look back.

He had a five-fight winning streak that took him into his fight with Ricky Glenn.

That was a fight where he dominated the first two rounds but found himself on E in the third, allowing Glenn to storm back and have a round that two judges saw as a 10-8 in Glenn’s favor.

That fight was scored a draw, the only blemish on Dawson’s UFC record. He has answered back with three straight victories including showing off that his gas tank is much improved. He had back-to-back third round stoppages and then dominated his last opponent in the third round

Strikes or Kicks?

At his best, Dawson does not play for long in the striking realm. He uses a variety of kicks from distance to measure the range, eventually changing levels and dragging fights to the mat.

For a long time, he trained at Glory MMA but within the last few years decided he needed to go to a super gym to break through to the next level and that’s what American Top Team has provided him.

He is an exceptional talent with an amazing will to win. Seeing his chain wrestle and thoroughly out-wrestler guys like Mark Madsen and Damir Ismagulov is a sign of elite skills for Dawson.

Bobby Green

A crowd favorite for his brash attitude and entertaining fighting style, Green has never broken through to a championship level with the UFC.

He had a four-fight winning streak to start his UFC career back in 2013 but eventually ran into Edson Barbosa. Since that Barboza fight, Green has put together a 7-9-1 record, never being more successful than the four-fight winning streak that he started with.

At 37-years-old, it’s obvious that his ceiling and prime are past him, but he is still a tough out for prospects looking to break through or other veterans looking to remain successful at the highest level.

Durability

It’s the boxing, pressure, and volume of Bobby Green that has made him so successful.

He rolls well with his striking defense, which allows him to avoid most power punches from his opponents. He has only been knocked out twice in the striking realm in the UFC, the other TKO loss came to Makhachev who completely dominated him on the mat.

Green is well-versed in the grappling realm, but there was an obvious discrepancy in skill in that matchup. Green’s durability, forward movement, and combination striking is the best part of his game. If he can get into his flow, force his opponents to miss, and continue his forward pressure, he is a tough opponent to defeat.

The Pick

This seems to be a layup matchup for Dawson to pick up a win in his first main event slot, but it’s tough to get behind his chalky -500 line.

The problem to solve becomes what method he wins by and how long/short this fight ends up being. I tend to believe that Green will be resilient enough off his back to avoid being finished by Dawson.

I think Makhachev’s grappling pressure is harder to overcome than what Dawson will showcase, allowing Green to stay safe enough without getting finished. I’m going to lean with Dawson by decision and the over as my favorite spots for this fight

Dawson via DEC +300 & Over 4.5 +170