UFC 311 Three Best Moneyline Bets
Bogdan Guskov (16-3) vs Billy Elekana (7-1)
A rough start to his UFC career with a submission loss to Volkan Oezdemir has made way for back-to-back knockout victories for Guskov. Guskov is a power punching menace who loves to pressure and crash the pocket with his shots. His grappling is a bit suspect, as was exposed by Oezdemir and a bit by Spann, but if he can keep his opponents on their back foot, he has a better time of staying upright. Read more UFC 311 three best moneyline bets.
Elekana makes his UFC debut on short notice after accruing a 7-1 record on the regional scene. His lone defeat was a massive upset as he was a -600 favorite, but I think he learned a big lesson from that fight. At his best, he treads distance well and pops his opponents down the pipe with sniper-like precision. He has been training with high-level partners for most of his career, so he is ready for this step up.
Guskov’s knockout power makes things a little sweaty, but the odds are enticing enough to take the leap on the dog. Look for Elekana to counter Guskov effectively, land the more eye-pleasing shots, then eventually find the button to put him away.
The Pick: Billy Elekana +275
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Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) vs Renato Moicano (20-5-1)
An 8-fight winning streak put Dariush in a number one contender fight against former champion, Charles Oliveria. Unfortunately, that was the beginning of back-to-back losses for Dariush has took off the entirety of 2024 to recover and get back in shape. Many are writing him off, but I wouldn’t be so fast to do so.
Moicano’s stock is at an all-time high. Not just because of a four-fight winning streak, but because of the classic post-fight interviews he puts out there after each victory. BJJ is the name of the game for him, as he normally seems uncomfortable in the striking realm until he can find the trip or takedown required to be safe.
Dariush has the chops to nullify Moicano’s grappling game. From there, I think Dariush is the far superior striker and that could lead to him pummeling Moicano and putting him away. Odds are out of whack here and a clear sign of recency bias, so just like Christian Rodrigues at +245 last week, let’s take advantage of Dariush at +135 this week.
The Pick: Beneil Dariush +135
Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1) vs Jamahal Hill (12-2)
You must feel for Prochazka who was essentially bullied into taking his second shot at the champion on short notice. It seems the UFC threw a bag at him to save UFC 303, and he ended up paying for it by being knocked out again by the champion. Prochazka’s chaotic style is hard to deal with, especially when his durability shows up.
Hill was forced to give up his title due to injury but was immediately given a title shot upon his return at UFC 300. Alex Pereira shut the door on him swiftly and Hill has been trying to get back in the cage to earn another crack at the crown. The punching power of Hill is what has largely made him successful in his career, but I think many opponents he has beaten thus far were tailor made for him.
If Prochazka’s chin holds up here, I think Hill will struggle mightily with the forward pressure and power coming back his way. I expect Prochazka to walk him down and find the big shot within 10 minutes to stake his claim for another title shot.
