UFC 311 Main Event
The UFC absolutely delivered on their first event of the year last week, which now makes way for their first PPV card of the year. Headlined by two title fights, the promotion heads to Los Angeles amidst the ongoing wildfires. Many believe the decision to keep the event in LA is to help boost morale during an unfortunate time for the city. If that is the case, they have done a solid job of offering up a banger of a card. Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov vie for the bantamweight title in the co-main event, while main event honors are bestowed upon the lightweights. Read more UFC 311 main event.
Champion, Islam Makhachev, looks to defend his title for a fourth time after a June finish of Dustin Poirier.
Arman Tsarukyan aims to even the score against the champion who is responsible for handing Tsarukyan a defeat in his UFC debut.
Will the Dagestani continue his winning ways and domination of the weight class? Or will Tsarukyan prove that the work he has put in over the last five years has paid off? Read on to see how this electric lightweight matchup will go down and what to target to put some extra coin in your pocket.
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Islam Makhachev
An October 2015 loss to Adriano Martins put a hiccup in Makhachev’s hopes of fighting for a title. That speed bump may have benefitted him in the end considering his closest training partner, Khabib, was already close to a title shot of his own. After that defeat, Makhachev would go on to win his next 10 fights, which included 6 finishes.
That led him to a title fight win against Charles Oliveira, two title defenses against Alexander Volkanovski, and finally a June defense against Dustin Poirier. Many believe his toughest challenge lays ahead of him this weekend, even though it is a foe he has already defeated.
There’s no hiding what Makhachev is looking to do when he gets in the cage. Wrestling, control, and domination. He has only gotten better and more dangerous. 4 of his first 7 wins in the promotion were by decision, while 7 of his last 8 wins are now by finish.
The improvements in his striking game have allowed him to stay a tad more comfortable when throwing hands, all to eventually set up a level change and the chain wrestling. Dagestanis have gained respect amongst MMA fans for having spectacular wrestling, but what I think is even more impressive is their ability to hold opponents down. Constantly attacking and disrupting the base their opponents are trying to make with their limbs keeps them on their back and wears them out. Makhachev is one of the best at implementing that style.
Arman Tsarukyan
It’s easy to tell that the UFC had high hopes for Tsarukyan when they brought him into the promotion. Wasting no time, they lined him up against Islam Makhachev and he put up a valiant enough effort that the 30-27 x3 scorecards don’t do him any justice. From there, Tsarukyan would go on a five-fight winning streak and continue improving his game by joining the American Top Team stable. A very close loss to Mateusz Gamrot in his first headlining spot sent him back to the drawing board, but now he finds himself on a four-fight winning streak with two of those coming by finish.
Much like his opponent this weekend, Tsarukyan is best when he can get his wrestling going. He takes opponents down and does what he wants to them from top position. However, most of his improvements have come from his striking game which masks takedowns well. It’s clear he has a ton of power when he explodes and blitzes into the pocket, just ask Beneil Dariush. Now with the biggest win under his belt against Charles Oliveira back at UFC 300, Tsarukyan believes he has prepared and improved as best as he can to erase the first loss of his UFC career.
The Pick
The odds may not reflect it, but this fight will be competitive from bell to bell. From a moneyline standpoint, I can’t get behind anything other than a small sprinkle on Tsarukyan. Their first fight was highly competitive through 10 minutes, but I think we could see Tsarukyan learn from that performance and look to use a different approach.
All his takedowns were stuffed and nullified by the Dagestani fighter, which ultimately played into Makhachev’s hands. If Tsarukyan looks to use his wrestling defensively and try to put a striking pace on Makhachev, that could really shake things up. However, Makhachev is a pure winner. He knows what to do to win, and how to execute it. I expect him to get his grappling going, get plenty of control time, and win this on the scorecards. I’m not with the -350 moneyline, but I don’t mind a shot on the fight to hit the scorecards. Historically, these guys are hard to put away, and I will bank on that to cash us a ticket.
