UFC 309 Three Best Moneyline Bets
Marcin Tybura (25-9) vs Jhonata Diniz (8-0)
Coming up short in his main event slot back in August, Tybura looks to bounce back this weekend over a hot prospect. Tybura is 8-3 over his last 11 fights, showcasing that he can still perform and be successful against most outside of the top 5. He is one of the more complete heavyweights on the roster who can also go a hard 15 if required. Read more UFC 309 three best moneyline bets.
Diniz was stripped of the biggest opportunity of his career earlier this month when he was scheduled to take on the Black Beast, Derrick Lewis. Unfortunately, a weigh-in day illness caused Lewis to pull out and Diniz was rescheduled for this card. His kickboxing background has translated into an 8-0 start to his MMA career, finishing all but one of his opponents with strikes.
Tybura will have over four times the MMA experience of Diniz, but also a decided grappling advantage. Look for Tybura to rely on his wrestling and BJJ to put Diniz in bad spots that will open submission opportunities. Historically Tybura has had a reliable chin, unless he faces someone like Aspinall, and that should carry him into a takedown and dominance.
The Pick: Marcin Tybura -145
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Jonathan Martinez (19-5) vs Marcus McGhee (9-1)
In the biggest spot of his career in June, Martinez came up short taking on MMA legend, Jose Aldo, in his backyard. Martinez had a six-fight winning streak going into that fight and all the confidence in the world, but nothing can compare you to fighting a legend like Aldo in Brazil and he felt the pressure.
McGhee has made a splash in the UFC with three-straight finished, showcasing his explosive and powerful striking style. His lone defeat came from a fighter that used a grapple-heavy approach and eventually found his back for the submission. It’s clear McGhee has worked on his defensive grappling, which will make him even more of a threat in the striking realm.
This fight is a perfect representation of what the MMA betting space is like and their recency bias ways. Just 5 months ago, Martinez was a favorite against Jose Aldo, now he finds himself as an underdog against someone relatively unproven. I expect a class leg-kick-heavy approach from Martinez as usual to slow McGhee down, then let his hands do the rest of the work.
The Pick: Jonathan Martinez +120
Charles Oliveira (34-10) vs Michael Chandler (23-8)
There were some close opportunities for Oliveira to pull off the upset at UFC 300 against Tsarukyan, but it was not meant to be that night. Oliveira is a fan favorite, relying on a finish-heavy approach to get opponents out of there, often with a submission. His striking has come a long way as well, something that aids him in getting to his grappling effectively.
It’s a shame that Chandler has wasted two years waiting for Conor McGregor, especially when you consider Chandler is now 38. Although he has a losing UFC record (2-3), he always brings entertainment win or lose, hence why the UFC continues to give him big spots and opportunities like this weekend. Strong wrestling, but it’s his willingness to engage in the fire and put on epic clashes that warrant his respect.
This is a rematch of a fight that took place just over 3 years ago, a night where Chandler dominated the first round but got caught in the opening seconds of round two. For this line to be as wide as it is making no sense to me. Even if you are picking Oliveira to win, Chandler at this price is a must bet considering the damage he can inflict and the submission defense he showed.
