UFC 307 Three Best Moneyline Bets
Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2) vs Iasmin Lucindo (16-5)
Although Rodriguez is on a tough stretch going 1-3 in her last four fights, she’s had bright moments throughout. Besides a brain fart at the end of round two of her last fight, she was close to picking up a win over former title holder, Jessica Andrade. Rodriguez often showcases a solid striking game with fluid combinations and some sting to her shots. Read more UFC 307 three best moneyline bets.Â
At only 22-years old, Lucindo has a wealth of experience against mediocre competition before coming into the UFC. She dropped her UFC debut to Yazmin Jaurgeui but has rattled off three straight wins ever since. Showing a solid all-around game, Lucindo grows in confidence with every fight and looks to have promising potential.
With a 15-year age gap, there is usually some love for the younger fighter. However, I think Lucindo will struggle to keep this fight on the mat, ultimately being forced to strike with the better striker. Due to that, I expect there to be good enough value on Rodriguez to pull off the upset.
The Pick: Marina Rodriguez +180
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Roman Dolidze (13-3) vs Kevin Holland (26-11)
A short notice win at light heavyweight back in June got Dolidze back in the win column, but he returns to middleweight to get himself back on the path to the title. His reckless and aggressive style has allowed him to break some opponents, but the technically superior fighters have been able to thwart his advances.
Holland is in the stage of his career where he will bounce between 170lbs and 185lbs, looking for the most fun and entertaining fights he can get. Given his recent losses, it’s obvious he is not going to be in title contention anytime soon, so he might as well still make a bag while he’s around. Accurate, sniper-like striking from distance, and a sneaky submission game is what he normally brings to the table.
Usually the betting public is all over Holland, so it’s weird to see him down at this line. Dolidze could look to get some grappling going here, but I’m not overly impressed by his control, which leads me to believe that Holland can pick him apart on the feet with his speed and striking advantage. The number we are getting is generous, I just hope I’m not overconfident in this spot.
The Pick: Kevin Holland -140
Raquel Pennington (16-8) vs Julianna Pena (10-5)
Winning the title back in January, Pennington managed to bounce back from a 10-8 start to her career to now winning six-straight fights and reaching the pinnacle of the sport. Pennington has only lost to former champions since being in the UFC, but she managed to get into a solid groove since mid-2020 that has propelled her to championship level.
Pena took full advantage of Amanda Nunes overlooking her in their first fight and was able to win the title. However, we saw when Nunes took things seriously, she mopped the floor with her. Pena now gets a chance to reclaim her title against an easier opponent than Nunes while trying to showcase that she is one of the best bantamweights in the world. Wrestling and grappling have been the name of the game for Pena, an aspect of MMA that she has an advantage over many women in the division.
Likely the better overall fighter, Pennington could end up struggling in the wrestling realm and be unable to get to her game. I suspect we’ll see a ton of wrestling and top control from Pena that could eventually open a submission opportunity. At 41% implied odds, I believe there is value on Pena to pull off the upset and become the champion once again.
