UFC 307 Main Event Best Bet

October kicks off with a PPV card for the UFC and ends with one too. Firstly, UFC 307 goes down in Salt Lake City, Utah headlined by a light heavyweight title fight and a co-main event that features a women’s bantamweight title bout. Raquel Pennington looks to defend her title for the first time against former champion Julianna Pena, which serves as an appetizer for the big boys in the headlining spot. Read more UFC 307 main event best bet. 

Champion, Alex Pereira, looks to defend his title for the third time, all which have come in 2024.

Khalil Rountree parlays a five-fight winning streak into his first title shot and hopes to achieve the ultimate goal in the sport.

Will Poatan continue dominating the 205ers? Or will we see a huge upset and the title change hands? Read on to see how these dynamic strikers match up and if Pereira is worthy of being such a chalky favorite.

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Alex Pereira

The timing of Pereira landing in the UFC could not have come at a better time. Making his debut in November 2021, Conor McGregor had last competed just a few months before that. The UFC has needed a new draw, no one will ever get close to what Conor did for the sport, but the momentum and fan base Pereira has cultivated since his arrival is significant.

From getting a title shot within a year of being with the promotion, to winning the middleweight title, to losing it five months later, Pereira made a mark at 185lbs. He then turned his attention to 205lbs and has been running the game. Besides his initial fight at the weight class being a close split decision win over a former champion, he has squashed his next three fights.

Pereira comes from a credentialed kickboxing background where he was a champion with GLORY. It’s easy to see how dangerous and skillful he is when he gets into his groove. Utilizing a nasty calk kick and a bomb of a check left hook, opponents have been unable to figure out how to crack the code. Timing and precision have also been a huge factor in Pereira being successful.

Something to keep an eye on is that he is 37 years old, so that clock is ticking, and the MMA gods are just waiting to snatch all this success away from him. If he can continue dictating the pace of his fights, staying safe at distance, and making opponents pay with his counters, he will be hard to dethrone.

Khalil Rountree Jr

Rountree was only 4-0 going into the 23rd season of The Ultimate Fighter back in 2016. He was lucky to get an opportunity in the finals after an injury on the show, but he came up short. Going on to put together a 4-4 record over his next 8 fights, not many people expected him to achieve much success.

However, in late 2021 he found a switch and has known nothing but victory since. Finishing Modestas Bukauskas and Karl Roberson, we saw a disdain from Rountree that exuded confidence like we had never seen. A close decision win over Jacoby was highly criticized, but Rountree shut up the naysayers with back-to-back knockout victories over his next two fights, the most recent being against former title challenger, Anthony Smith.

Known mainly for his power striking style and decapitating opponents, when Rountree finds his zone, he is tough to deal with. It seems like he has matured and grown a lot in 8 years, specifically with managing his gas tank and find the range to be effective. Back in 2019, Rountree switched up his training and moved to Thailand and developed a love for the art. You can see it clear as day even to this day with his stance and how he whips his leg kicks.

Syndicate MMA has been his home over the last few years, usually seen as the smaller brother gym to Xtreme Couture. Regardless, whatever Rountree has been doing as of late has helped him get to this point, so credit to him.

The Pick

It’s tough to convince myself that eating the -460 chalk on Pereira is the way to go here. Knowing this fight will primarily be taking place in the striking realm and considering the power in which Rountree throws, there could be plenty of 50/50 moments when they exchange in the pocket. Pereira has built this aura of himself but that proceeds his moneyline, in my opinion.

I think the way to make money on this fight would be the props. I still think Pereira wins, so I won’t go full on the underdog here. If you like Rountree, taking a combination of his R1 KO/R2 KO/R3 KO at absurd prices is not a bad sprinkle.

For me, I’m leaning on the R1 KO/R2 KO spots for Pereira. For the sake of the article, I’ll be tracking round 2 as I think it will take about a round or so for Pereira to get his timing and range, from there he should find the button to put Rountree away.

Pereira via Round 2 KO +365