UFC 306 Three Best Moneyline Bets
Manuel Torres (15-2) vs Ignacio Bahamondes (15-5)
Riding a six-fight winning streak, Torres has finished his three UFC opponents in the first round as well. He has become one of the more feared prospects on the roster with how quickly he can put people away. There are still question marks about how he does against guys that aren’t so easy to put away and those questions could get answered this weekend. Read more UFC 306 three best moneyline bets.
Bahamondes is fresh off his 27th birthday and looking to string some success together. In April he put away Christos Giagos with a nasty head kick. It was one of the more aggressive performances we’ve seen from Bahamondes, hopefully ushering in a new and improved version of himself. Training alongside newly minted welterweight champion, Belal Muhammed, there must be some newfound motivation injected into his veins.
I’ve long tried to fade the early finishing nature of Torres, but I think I’ve been waiting for Bahamondes this entire time. Someone with solid durability, great cardio, a technically superior striking game, and sneaky submissions. Torres will surely be pushed in this fight if he can’t get the early finish. Give me dog odds on the more experienced and overall better fighter.
The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes +110
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Ronaldo Rodriguez (16-2) vs Ode Osbourne (12-7)
Making a successful UFC debut back in February, Rodriguez dealt with a grapple-heavy approach from Denys Bondar before outlasting him and submitting him in the dying seconds of round two. “Lazy Boy” has an impressive 16-2 record and rides a six-fight winning streak. He is aggressive, has great cardio, and does not settle for bad positions. A far cry from the 21-year-old prospect he was on the 2020 season of DWCS, now is the time for Rodriguez.
Osbourne is now on a 1-3 run over his last four fights with that lone defeat coming by split decision against Charles Johnson. That was a fight Johnson let slip through his fingers and Osbourne capitalised. Largely leaning on his physicality, power, and early finishing ability, Osbourne has found it difficult to find success at this level. A suspect gas tank doesn’t help his cause either.
Line movement on this fight has been interesting during fight week. Rodriguez opened around -180, dropped down to -125, and now finds himself leveling out at -145. I feel Rodriguez is good all the way up to -220. Osbourne could have early success here, but he will struggle to deal with the resistance and constant pressure of Rodriguez. I expect Rodriguez to break him and eventually submit him in round two or three.
The Pick: Ronaldo Rodriguez -145
Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) vs Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1)
Grasso pulled off the unthinkable early last year when she submitted Shevchenko, dethroning the flyweight Queen as a +500 underdog. She managed to have just as competitive of a matchup in their second meeting last year but had to settle for a draw. Striking has always been her forte, but if there is anything this rivalry has taught us is that her grappling has significantly improved from earlier in her career. Without it, we wouldn’t even be talking about this matchup again.
Shevchenko ruled the flyweight division for 4.5 years, defending her title seven times before running into Alexa Grasso in March 2023. A minor slip up caused the champ her title. A huge gaff on a judge’s scorecard in their second meeting cost Shevchenko the chance of winning her title again. Knowing how disciplined, technical, and cerebral she is, Shevchenko will come into this third meeting with an even better gameplan and stellar execution.
Had it not been for a wayward 10-8 in the final round of their last fight, Shevchenko would have the title once again. Minor mistakes have allowed Grasso success in their fights, so I expect to see a much cleaner and tighter Shevchenko. Her grappling will pay off as it has in the past, but I expect her to be even safer this time, not looking to rush positions, but rather establishing control and grinding those positions out. And New.
