UFC 305 Three Best Moneyline Bets
Junior Tafa (5-2) vs Valter Walker (11-1)
Now 1-2 through his UFC career, Tafa is not meeting the expectations of what his brother has set. Tafa is a striker, but as an MMA fighter seems to have many holes in his game. The big hole seems to be his grappling, as he doesn’t have much of a get up game and his takedown defense is also very poor. You can expect decent power from him, as you can with pretty much all heavyweights, but outside of that, there isn’t much to lean on. Read more UFC 305 three best moneyline bets.
Walker had a brain fart early in his UFC debut and that ended up costing him. It was encouraging to see him pull momentum back in his favor late in that fight, unfortunately it was already too late by that point. Normally relying on big takedowns and crushing top pressure, Walker is a far cry from his brother, Johnny, who leans on power strikes to finish his opponents.
I’m mystified as to why Walker is the dog here, he should have no problem dragging this fight to the mat and dominating from top position. I believe Walker can put on an absolute beatdown on Tafa, likely finishing him within two rounds.
The Pick: Valter Walker +110
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Tai Tuivasa (14-7) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5)
Tuivasa currently rides a four-fight losing streak and each performance seems like things get worse for him. Largely leaning on his massive power and heavy leg kicks, Tuivasa doesn’t rely on a decision-based game plan to pick his opponents apart. It seems his focus is not entirely on MMA nowadays and that could come back to bite him, especially going up against fighters that live and breathe the sport.
Putting on a veteran performance last time out, Rozenstruik jabbed Shamil Gaziev into a fourth-round corner stoppage. Rozenstruik is a clean, crisp, and technical striker who packs a ton of power. His takedown defense has improved to the point that he can now dictate the pace of fights in the striking realm, with his power commanding a ton of respect.
This is not a good fight for Tuivasa at all. As you would expect, heavyweights always have the nuclear option if they can time and land a big shot. However, I think the chances of that are quite low considering the striking acumen of Rozenstruik. Look for Bigi Boy to find a big shot and put Tuivasa out within 10 minutes.
The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220
Kai Kara-France (24-11) vs Steve Erceg (12-2)
It’s been an unfortunate run of things for Kara-France as of late, going winless in over two years. He has not been all that active either, as this will only be his third fight in that amount of time. Kara-France brings in a wealth of experience from all over the world, largely fueled by his knockout power that is not often seen at this weight class.
Erceg surprised many in May when he was just one round away from dethroning the flyweight champion. Many did not believe he deserved the shot, but considering the lack of options, Erceg got his opportunity. Luckily, he showed he was ready for the big stage and performed way better than most expected. Erceg is a BJJ black belt, but it’s really his technical and clean striking approach that has led to most of his success.
Kara-France holds a solid experience edge here, but as Erceg showed last time out, he is just waiting for these opportunities to show to the world that he belongs. I think Erceg’s cleaner striking approach, mixed with his BJJ black belt and some grappling success should get him this win over Kara-France. It may be sweaty, but I expect the chalk to come through.
