UFC 304 Main Event Best Bets

It’s been a long 8 years since the UFC gave England a PPV card. Last time they had one of their own defending as Michael Bisping exacted revenge on Dan Henderson and beat him on the scorecards. This time around, the UFC has both British champions defending against former foes. Read more UFC 304 main event best bets.

Leon Edwards sets his sights on inching closer to being considered one of the greatest welterweights of all time by defending his belt for the third time.

Belal Muhammad wants to prove to everyone that he has been worthy of this title shot by earning his 10th straight win in a row.

Will the Brit show out in front of his hometown crowd once again? Or will Muhammad spoil the party and pull off the upset? Read on to see how these welterweights match up and how to best bet this fight

Leon Edwards

Since losing to Kamaru Usman back in late 2015, Edwards has turned his career around and known nothing but victory. It seemed delayed considering the nine-fight winning streak required for Edwards to warrant a title shot, but he finally got his wish in August 2022 against the man to last defeat him.

That night, Edwards was on the verge of losing a decision but pulled out a nasty head kick to flatline Usman. He defended against Usman the following March and won on the scorecards, affirming that he does not need a hail mary KO to get his hand raised against Usman. In December he added another top welterweight to his win column as he out-worked Covington over 25 minutes.

The calling card for Usman throughout his career has mainly been his striking. He throws in crisp combinations, sets traps very well, and throws with heat.

Although he only has 3 wins by knockout in his 14 UFC wins, it’s clear his shots have power on them with how his opponents react. One aspect of his game that is often overlooked is that he can take opponents down and grind them out from top position, just to have them worry about another aspect of his game and not just his striking.

His takedown defense has vastly improved, which helped him get his hand raised over Usman and Covington. Edwards is clearly in his prime and the success of that has followed him.

Hey, while you’re at it, click here to check out our Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks! 

Belal Muhammad

Coming into the UFC back in 2016, Muhammad had an undefeated 9-0 record. He went 5-3 through his first 8 UFC fights, but then really came into his own after his last defeat to Geoff Neal. Rattling off 9 straight victories, Muhammad has beaten some of the most notable welterweight names in recent years.

Demian Maia, Wonderboy, Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and most recently Gilbert Burns over 25 minutes, Muhammad has become undeniable as the next worthy title challenger. The no contest to Edwards from early 2021 adds even more fuel to the story as well.

Muhammad is not a known finisher, with only 2 finishes during this 9-fight winning streak. What Muhammad weaponizes is his cardio, pace, and activity. He doesn’t put a whole lot of heat on his shots, it’s about the volume and consistent output that favors him in the eyes of the judges.

It is like what made Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman so effective, especially when they would mix in their wrestling behind it. Muhammad does not have as credentialed of a wrestling background, but he makes up for it by setting a high pace. 

The Pick

Leading up to fight week I really wanted to play Muhammad as I knew he would be a big underdog. After running the research, I feel the judges will end up favoring the more impactful damage of Edwards. It still makes me hesitant to lay the chalk on the champion, so I will be going about this fight a different way.

I expect it to be close, I expect some rounds to go to Muhammad. I don’t often suggest these types of bets, but I feel there is some solid value to it this week. Going with the Muhammad +5.5 point spread means this bet wins either if Muhammad wins outright, or if Muhammad loses on the scorecards by nothing greater than 5 points after adding all the scorecards together.

Considering how competitive I expect this to be and the chances of Muhammad winning a few rounds, this seems to be the best course of action. I will reiterate, I expect Edwards to get his hand raised, but Muhammad will make this close.

Muhammad +5.5 points -105