UFC 304 DFS Picks
There are two mainstays to play DFS for MMA; DraftKings and FanDuel. Each has its own scoring rules and variations, but they are similar. Here are DraftKings’ scoring rules and FanDuel’s scoring rules. I will always list fighters I think should be selected as MVP at the top and will use DraftKings budget to model my projections. Read below for UFC 304 DFS picks.
MVP Pick
Tom Aspinall $9,400
The co-main event between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes is a rematch for the interim heavyweight title. The first fight ended in 15 seconds after Aspinall injured his knee, but they were both throwing heavy shots prior.
I expect this fight to play out the same, except for the injury. Aspinall is the cleaner striker, but Blaydes has improved immensely in his recent fights. Whoever wins this fight likely does it quickly and earns many fantasy points. Aspinall is a -380 favorite and +110 to win by knockout in the first round. He should get the job done in front of his home crowd.
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Other Picks
Caolan Loughran $8,700
Loughran is fighting Jake Hadley, who is moving up from flyweight on short notice. He was supposed to fight Ramon Taveras but had to pull out due to injury.
This matchup is great for Loughran, a powerful striker with good wrestling. He must be weary of Hadley’s submissions if he lands a takedown, but I expect him to keep this fight standing. Hadley defends 60% of significant strikes but absorbs more than he lands, which will be an issue at Bantamweight. Loughran is a -205 favorite and should be able to find a knockout against the smaller fighter.
Christian Leroy Duncan $8,300
Christian Leroy Duncan has been on a tear in his last two fights, winning by second-round knockouts. He is taking on Gregory Rodrigues, who is notorious for being a tough fighter who takes opponents into the deep end. His last five fights have ended via knockout, with him winning four.
Duncan should pose problems for Rodrigues because of his length and kickboxing background. Rodrigues lands 6.08 significant strikes and absorbs 5.30 significant strikes per minute. Duncan lands with 62% accuracy and should be able to land his kicks with ease against Rodrigues.
Bobby “King” Green $8,200
Green is fighting Paddy Pimblett on the main card in Manchester on Saturday. Pimblett will have the favor of the crowd, but Green always shows up and loves being the underdog.
He is a -120 favorite, but the crowd will be heavily against him. Green should utilize his cardio against Pimblett, who always slows down later in the fight. Green could also use his wrestling if he chooses. He lands 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Pimblett only defends 56% of takedowns. It is a good matchup for Green, who is coming off a decision victory over Jim Miller.
Manel Kape $7,800
One of the most anticipated fights on the prelims is a flyweight matchup between Muhammad Mokaev and Manel Kape. Mokaev is an undefeated fighter but has not been as dominant against the top flyweights.
He only landed three of 20 takedowns in his last fight against Alex Perez and could have trouble finding takedowns against Kape, who defends 77% of takedowns. Kape has power for the division and could see a knockout as Mokaev wears himself out attempting takedowns.
Oban Elliott $7,600
Oban Elliott is taking on Preston Parsons in the bantamweight division. Elliott is from Wales and should have the support of the crowd who has watched him come up through the regional scene.
It is a good matchup, but Elliott has the striking advantage. He lands 4.27 significant strikes and absorbs 2.17 significant strikes per 15 minutes. Parsons’ ratio is 3.83-3.18 and could have trouble landing clean shots on Elliott, who defends 61% of significant strikes. Both men are good wrestlers with solid submission skills, but Elliott could catch him in a choke if he gets top control.
