UFC 302 Three Best Moneyline Bets
Ailin Perez (9-2) vs Joselyne Edwards (13-5)
UFC 302 THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – Since dropping her UFC debut, Perez has bounced back with two dominant victories where she was able to accrue 20 minutes of control time over the course of 30 minutes of cage time. Her striking still needs work, but she does a great job of implementing her grappling and being a blanket from the top position. Out-muscling her opponent is often on the gameplan and she has been successful against 9 of his 11 opponents thus far.
Edwards has had a rollercoaster run with the promotion through her three years with the promotion, most recently having her three-fight winning streak snapped in September. Showing solid lateral movement and kicks, Edwards is best when she can dictate the pace of fights from distance. She has shown bad takedown defense in the past and fallen in love with seeking submissions off her back.
This a grudge match as these two have bad blood that poured over late last year when they crossed paths at a gym. It left Perez with a black eye, but I believe when this fight plays out under MMA rules, Perez will come out on top. I suspect we’ll see Perez smother Edwards and do a good enough job of staying out of submissions and dominating from top position.
The Pick: Ailin Perez -185
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Cesar Almeida (5-0-) vs Roman Kopylov (12-3)
This standout kickboxer has transitioned to MMA very easily and has put together a 5-0 record. His defensive grappling is what is most impressive considering how quickly he can work back to his feet without sustaining too much damage in return. Once at distance and comfortable with his combinations, Almeida fires off with ill-intentions and can put most of his opponents away.
Kopylov had his four-fight winning streak snapped last time around by the smothering grappling approach of Anthony Hernandez. Normally, we’ve seen Kopylov pick opponents apart with his nasty body kicks and all-around striking approach. However, Kopylov has slowed down in the past which has led to defeats. His striking needs to be respected, especially with how much he switches up his targets.
The four fights Kopylov won recently that allowed him to finish his opponents were scenarios that he was the superior striker. Unfortunately for him, that won’t be the case this weekend as he takes on a tenured striker who even holds a win over current light heavyweight champion, Alex Perreira. Look for Almeida to chip away at Kopylov and finish him at some point in round two or three.
The Pick: Cesar Almeida -120
Sean Strickland (28-6) vs Paulo Costa (14-3)
Looking to rebound from losing his title back in January, Strickland sets his eye on another big name in hopes of returning to the top of the division. We know what Strickland does well and that mainly revolves around him pressuring his opponents and staying in their face. He throws a good chunk of output, although nothing with a whole lot of power. It’s a “death by a thousand cuts” approach from Strickland as he has a great gas tank to fuel it.
Many questioned Costa’s commitment to the game after failed bookings, inactivity, and even missing weight for one of his recent fights by a whole weight class. However, he came back looking motivated and in shape against Robert Whittaker in February. Although he came up short, it’s promising to see how quickly he is looking to bounce back here, returning to action just over three months since then. Look for this power puncher to try stamping his return to the division with a big knockout.
Interesting stylistic clash here, but I think the line is just far too wide to trust Strickland’s style. Costa will be happy to engage in the pocket with Strickland where he can land big shots to either knockout the former champion or sway the judges in his favor. Strickland has had issues in the past with power punchers and Costa could have similar success, at the current line Costa is more than worth a shot to pull off the upset.
