UFC 302 Main Event Pick

UFC 302 MAIN EVENT PICK – After a week off, the UFC has returned with a PPV card going down in Newark, New Jersey. Two five-round fights headline the card with the lightweight title on the line and a pivotal middleweight affair below it.

Islam Makhachev looks to defend his title for the third time, although it will be his first against an actual lightweight.

Dustin Poirier hopes to come through on his third attempt at securing undisputed lightweight gold.

Will the Dagestani era at 155lbs continue? Or will Poirier finally achieve the undisputed status he has sought for so long? Read on to see how this lightweight matchup will go down and how to back it with your hard-earned money.

Hey, while you’re at it, click here to check out our Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks! 

Islam Makhachev 

When Makhachev got knocked out in the second fight of his UFC run, that was the last and only time he would ever face defeat. That fight took place nearly nine years ago and he has put together a clean sheet ever since. He has won 13 fights in a row, with his last three being for the title.

Many believed once Khabib Nurmagomedov retired, Makhachev was going to be next, and it did not take long for that to come true. Finishing six of his last seven opponents also indicates that he is firmly entrenched in his peak and has a damn good case of being the number one pound for pound fighter on the planet. 
 
What makes Makhachev so successful has been his dominant wrestling approach. Getting his opponents down is one thing, but being able to keep them there is what has separated the Dagestani wrestlers from the rest of the grapplers. They attack the base of their opponents so well before their opponent can work to their knees or feet.

From there, Makhachev has improved his BJJ skill exponentially, which has led to him notching more finishes. His striking is clearly improving, as we saw when he put Alexander Volkanovski out cold in his last fight. At 32 years old, Makhachev is at his best and likely has another solid 2-3 years of ruling the lightweight division.

Dustin Poirier 

It was really Poirier’s battles with Eddie Alvarez and Justin Gaethje back in 2017-2018 that put him on the UFC’s radar as a guy they could push to the mainstream. He has an entertaining fighting style, is an amazing human being with all the charity work he does and seems to resonate with the fan base.

It helps that he’s a winner. Since losing to Michael Johnson in 2016, Poirier has put together a 10-3 record that included wins over Max Holloway, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Conor McGregor x2, and Michael Chandler. The losses are acceptable considering they came against Khabib, Charles Oliveira, and Justin Gaethje when they rematched mid-last year.  
 
The shining point in Poirier’s game is his striking. He puts combinations together well, sets traps and springs them when his opponent is least expecting it, and is super successful when he can drag opponents into wars. Sneaky submissions are something he can throw at his opponents as he is a BJJ black belt as well.

Even with all of that in his package, the endless valuable experience he has accrued through his 13+ years with the promotion always comes in handy as he has faced so many different levels and archetypes of opponents.

The Pick 

When this fight was announced, it was obvious the line was going to be significantly skewed in Makhachev’s favor. He was around -500 earlier this week but now finds himself closer to -700. This is just a horrible stylistic matchup for Poirier who struggles against wrestlers like Makhachev. We saw him struggle against Benoit Saint-Denis last time out, but luckily held on long enough to knock out the gassed BSD.

Makhachev will not gas. Makhachev will put Poirier through the ringer then eventually find his back and submit him. I’d hone in on the submission prop for Makhachev, but the play I like the most here is the under 2.5. Poirier has a puncher’s chance; I think he is the better striker. Unfortunately, I just don’t think he’ll have enough opportunities in the striking realm as he’ll be fighting off his back for most of this fight. 

Under 2.5 -175