UFC 302 Fantasy Picks
There are two mainstays to play DFS for MMA; DraftKings and FanDuel. Each has its own scoring rules and variations, but they are similar. Here are DraftKings’ scoring rules and FanDuel’s scoring rules. I will always list fighters I think should be selected as MVP at the top and will use DraftKings budget to model my projections. Read below for UFC 302 fantasy picks.Â
Related: UFC Main Event Pick
MVP Pick
Jailton Almeida $9,100
The matchup for Almeida is perfect for him to rebound after a loss to Curtis Blaydes. Almeida landed nine takedowns against the elite wrestler, Blaydes, but was not able to get his offense going and wore himself landing all those takedowns.
His opponent, Alexandr Romanov, is not a good wrestler and has only defended 20% of takedowns in his career. The path to victory for Jailton Almeida is as straightforward as it gets, which makes him a great fighter to roster.
Other Picks
Kevin Holland $9,000
Kevin Holland is taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk as the third fight on the main card, and it is an optimal matchup for Holland. Holland has a seven-inch reach advantage and should have the grappling advantage.
He has improved as a grappler since entering the UFC and is as active a fighter as any. His last couple of fights have been against some of the best in the world, and he lost them via decision but put up a good fight in each. Oleksiejczuk will not be larger than Holland and is not as high-level as Holland’s recent opponents.
The oddsmakers list Holland as a -300 favorite and are -110 to finish the fight inside the distance, which should be optimal for DFS scoring.
Sean Strickland $8,800
Sean Strickland is fighting Paulo Costa in the co-main event in a five-round fight. That lends itself well to DFS because Strickland can rack up a lot of strikes over five rounds. He is averaging 161 significant strikes in his last four five-round fights, which have gone the distance.
The oddsmakers have this around a coin flip to go the distance, and I agree with them. He should land plenty of strikes and pick up the pace in the final rounds as Costa fades.
Cesar Almeida $8,000
Cesar Almeida and Roman Kopylov will close out the prelims in a striking affair. Almeida is a former kickboxer and an elite one at that. Kopylov may try to mix in some wrestling to test the grappling of Almeida, but he is not the best wrestler around by any means.
Kopylov gets hit much more than Almeida, and it would not be surprising to see him lose by knockout to a technical striker. Almeida is +240 to win by knockout and +215 to win inside the distance, with almost zero chance to win via submission.
Phil Rowe $7,900
Phil Rowe is the underdog in his fight with Jake Matthews but has a decent shot at winning this inside the distance. Matthews has been inconsistent throughout his career, with several questionable losses during his run in the UFC.
Rowe has finished every victory in the UFC and only lost via decisions. His finishing upside is high, and the downside of a loss will not kill your lineup. Rowe is +275 to win inside the distance, and the fight is a coin flip to go to a decision, so I like Rowe’s chances of coming out on top in this fight.
Dustin Poirier $6,700
Poirier will be a great value among these fighters for DFS purposes. He is fighting Islam Makhachev for the lightweight belt and is a +470 underdog to defeat the champion.
The oddsmakers have the fight listed at +370 to go the distance, and Makhachev is -120 to finish the fight via submission. Poirier can finish the fight on the feet if he remains upright long enough to gain some momentum striking. Makhachev’s only loss is via knockout early in his career, but Poirier has elite power for the division and is as accurate as ever.
At 35, this is likely Poirier’s best and final chance to become champion, and many people will be automatically slotting in Makhachev in their lineups, so this is a great contrarian play.
