UFC 301 Main Event Pick
UFC 301 MAIN EVENT PICK – It’s not often that you see a champion must defend a title against someone not many people know about. Unfortunately for the flyweight champion, there is no clear number one contender, so he is giving a Cinderella opportunity to someone who has not been on the UFC roster for more than a year. All for the opportunity to headline a Pay-Per-View in front of his home country of Brazil.
Champion, Alexandre Pantoja, looks to defend his title for the second time after a clean sweep of Brandon Royval on the scorecards back in December.
Steve Erceg steps up to pull off a very tough feat, toppling the champion of his division in only his fourth UFC fight.
Will the Brazilian manage to keep the throne this weekend? Or will the Australian play spoiler in enemy territory? Read on to see how these flyweights matchup and whether Bruce Buffer will be reading “And Still” or “And New”.
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Alexandre Pantoja
After starting his UFC career 6-3, Pantoja finally managed to get some momentum piling together three-straight wins between 2021-2022. That earned him a title shot against an opponent he had previously defeated twice. UFC 290 was the crowning achievement for Pantoja as he dethroned champion Brandon Moreno by split decision to win the UFC championship. Since then, he had defended once against another former opponent of his who he defeated again, Brandon Royval.
Pantoja is a BJJ black belt who does a solid job of implementing his nasty power striking early but leaning on his ability to latch onto his opponents and keep them in bad positions. It’s truly marvelous that his body language is never really that great in deep water, but he manages to get a hold of his opponents and ride of dominant positions to get the judges to score rounds in his favor. His striking defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially as he starts to slow down, but when he can successfully initiate a grappling sequence, he always manages to find a way to the back of his opponent and that’s wrap on the rest of the round.
Steve Erceg
This 28-year-old signed with the UFC in 2023 and has rattled off three straight victories, bringing his overall winning streak to 11-straight. Two of those UFC wins came by decision, but he looked awfully dominant in those fights. His last win came in March when he knocked out Matt Schnell in the second-round while showcasing his crisp striking approach. Surprisingly, that was only the second career knockout victory for Erceg.
Erceg looks hyper focused and locked in every single time he steps into the cage. From each step he takes being super calculated, to the distance management he looks to implement, every action he takes serves a purpose. He is a BJJ black belt and has showcased many positive things from both offensive and defensive perspectives. When he is taken down, he immediately starts making incremental movements to eventually explode out of bad positions, either getting a reversal or working back to his feet. His cardio seems impressive, and he is very sharp.
The Pick
The one knock you can have on Erceg’s career is that he is yet to face elite competition. It’s tough to go from fighting someone like Matt Schnell to leaping up about 10 ranking spots and fight the champion.
The counterpoint to that is that he has yet to be given those opportunities. He has passed all the tests put in front of him over the past 7 years, who is to say he could not have beaten the top 10 fighters had he been given the chance. Pantoja is a very tough fighter, specifically with his ability to impose his will in the grappling realm late.
I think he is most dangerous in the first two rounds when he can put opponents away. However, I feel if Erceg can survive the early onslaught, staying safe while keeping up a decent activity level, this is a fight that he can start to pull away late and maybe find a finish in championship rounds. It’s hard for me to imagine Erceg accepting the bad positions in deep water against someone who is holding on for dear life.
Seeing Erceg’s processes and ability to work out of bad spots effectively, makes me believe he can punish Pantoja for those moments. This will be sweaty early, but if Erceg can find his way into round three, look for the tide to start changing. I think we will hear Bruce Buffer announce “And New” this weekend.
