UFC 299: Three Best Prop Bets
UFC 299: THREE BEST PROP BETS – The UFC is not holding back with their pay-per-view cards as they inch closer to UFC 300. It is another stacked card, with several fights that could headline any fight night event at the Apex.
The co-main event between Dustin Poirier and Benoit Saint Denis is a five-rounder and should be as entertaining as the title fight. Gear up for a stacked card, which should not disappoint.
Petr Yan to Win by Decision +135
Petr Yan has not had his way in recent fights, but they have all come against fighters ranked in the top five of the division. He lost to Merab Dvalishvili, Sean O’Malley, and Aljamain Sterling twice.
Yan beat Cory Sandhagen, currently third in the bantamweight rankings, between the two Sterling losses. He constantly shows up to fight the best in the world. His opponent, Song Yadong, is 26 years old and lost to Cory Sandhagen in 2022. His record is 21-7-1 with one no-contest, so he has tons of experience, but not at the highest level.
Yan averages just under 17 minutes, and Yadong averages slightly under 13 minutes per fight. Both men are durable, but Yan is also very defensive. He holds a high guard on the feet, while Yadong is more explosive.
The difference in this fight is going to be the wrestling. Yan lands 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Yadong has only defended 73% of takedowns in his career. Petr also tends to mix things up and can control on the mat. The matchup is razor close, but Yan’s well-rounded game should get him the nod in a fight heavily favored to go the distance.
Dustin Poirier to Win by Decision +700
Styles make fights, and this is one of those instances. Dustin Poirier and Benoit Saint Denis are stepping into the cage for a five-rounder upon the request of Poirier.
Both men are southpaws, which should favor Poirier. Saint Denis is 5-1 in the UFC, but his best victory came against Matt Frevola. It is a solid victory, but he is not a top-15 in the lightweight division. Poirier’s last fight was a knockout loss to Justin Gaethje, who landed one of the cleanest head kicks you will ever see.
Poirier has been fighting the highest level of opponent for over five years, and it may be too much, too soon for Saint Denis.
The biggest concern for Poirier is the grappling. He has been submitted multiple times in recent years, but they have come against the highest-level grapplers: Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Saint Denis lands 4.55 takedowns per 15 minutes and nine submission victories in his career. Poirier must avoid takedowns and immediately start working back to his feet if he does not. Saint Denis has yet to face an opponent of this caliber before, so we will see just how good his grappling skills are.
Poirier can knock anyone out, but Saint Denis has proven his toughness thus far in the UFC. He was a former French Special Forces operator at 18, so he has a unique skill set. Poirier should be the more technical striker, though.
He once picked apart Max Holloway for five rounds en route to a unanimous decision and can do it here against a willing but hittable opponent.
Sean O’Malley to Win by KO/TKO +250
The rematch between Sean O’Malley and Marlon “Chito” Vera should play out differently than the first. Vera landed a perfect kick that basically shut down the right leg of O’Malley and then proceeded to land heavy ground and pound.
O’Malley lost his balance and said his right foot/ankle was numb after the kick landed. Cudos to Vera for landing the kick, but it is rare that a kick lands on the peroneal nerve.
O’Malley is faster and has a reach advantage over Vera. It should help him move around the octagon and avoid the power shots of Vera. “Chito” is a slow starter but is durable and patient.
He tends to give up the first couple of rounds, but that is a mistake against O’Malley. Few fighters have better feints than O’Malley, and he only needs one to draw out an opening for a knockout punch.
Vera has never been finished in his career, but O’Malley is a finisher of the highest degree. The biggest mistake Vera will make in this fight is not moving his head off the center line. He also tends to stay in his pocket longer than he should because he is not afraid of being knocked out. O’Malley will make him pay for that and find a finish to defend his belt.
