UFC 292 Moneyline Prices: Manpreet’s Top Three

UFC 292 MONEYLINE PRICES: MANPREET’S TOP THREE – We start off with a rematch of a fight that took place nine years ago, where Maryna Moroz was able to lock up an armbar on Karine Silva in the first round to pick up the win. That win vaulted Moroz into the UFC while Silva was left to continue grinding on the regional scene.

Karine Silva (16-4) vs Maryna Moroz (11-4)

One of the most entertaining women to watch compete, Silva has only been to a decision once in her 20-fight professional career. Normally she utilizes a range-finding striking approach until she can finally change levels and take fights to the mat. From there she is very aggressive with finding submissions and looking to get her opponents out of there.

She is a BJJ brown belt but looks like she could receive her black belt any day now considering how often she is getting submissions. As for Moroz, she looks to rebound with a win this weekend. She had her three-fight winning streak snapped in her last fight, but remains in positive territory overall:

She has a very crafty submission game, and also has a knack for grinding opponents out with wrestling and control. Her striking is smooth and fluid from distance where she can use her movement and footwork to keep her safe at distance. She has nine years of UFC experience at this point, and looks to be getting better as years go by.

The Pick: Maryna Moroz +135

Although Silva has made obvious improvements in her submission game, I expect Moroz to still be competitive enough to stay safe from bottom position. In turn, this will allow her to operate at space on the feet where she’ll have a distinct advantage over Silva in the technical striking realm. I expect Moroz to fully exploit that and outpoint Silva on route to a decision victory.

Brad Katona (12-2) vs Cody Gibson (19-8)

Coming into his second Ultimate Fighter finale, Katona looks to be the first fighter to ever win the show twice. He had an unfortunate two-fight losing streak, which initially got him cut from the promotion. His last fight in the big time was a very close split decision loss to Hunter Azure, and the other loss was to Merab Dvalishvili.

Since then, Katona has gone on a four-fight winning streak while securing a major regional title with clean performances. He uses a relentless clinch/wrestling game to control his opponents and put them in uncomfortable positions. He is an intelligent fighter who knows how to game plan and execute the game plan.

Gibson went 1-3 with the UFC back in 2014/2015 but has since put together a 7-2 record as well as clean performances on the show to get this finale spot. He is a slick striker who throws in solid boxing combinations with head movement and defense. He coaches wrestling as well, although we’ve seen him get outwrestled and controlled by better MMA wrestlers. This most notably happened against Ray Borg in his last loss, back in January 2022.

If Gibson can assert his takedown defense throughout 15 minutes, his striking and feints could be key.

The Pick: Brad Katona -155

I think Gibson has the easiest route to the finals while Katona had to go through the show’s overall favorite Timur Valiev. Yet, Katona should be able to nullify Gibson’s striking approach by wrapping him up against the cage. This will lead to him landing takedowns as the fight gets into deep waters.

Katona can remain competitive in the striking realm with a lot of movement and in-and-out attacks to avoid the boxing of Gibson. I think we are getting a close line here because of how dominant Gibson looked on the show, but he was given great stylistic matchups and fights where he had a huge experience advantage. That changes this weekend.

Kurt Holobaugh (19-7) vs Austin Hubbard (15-6)

Out of all the fighters that have ever had a three-fight run in the UFC and been cut after going 0-3, Holobaugh may have had the toughest strength of schedule. Raoni Barcelos, Shane Burgos, and Thiago Moises were all able to defeat him, with the first two finishing Holobaugh. He only fought twice after that, going 2-0, before getting the call to TUF.

I believe the matchmakers and everyone know how fun and entertaining a fighter he is. He is a black belt in BJJ but prefers to slug it out in the pocket with his opponents. We saw him get heavily out grappled in his opening round matchup, but latched onto a Hail Mary guillotine choke to advance to the next round. He does his best when opponents are willing to exchange in the pocket with him.

After going 3-4 in the UFC and alternating wins and losses the entire time, his opponent Hubbard picked up two wins on the regional scene to get his shot on TUF this season. He trains out of Elevation Fight Team, which has very solid coaches and training partners. And you can see the cardio on display every time he fights. His nickname “Thud” comes from his coaches proclaiming his kicks make legit thud sounds every time he lands.

Since being cut from the UFC, he’s improved his ability to blend takedowns behind his striking game. He does a great job of traversing the range of his opponents and utilizing his kicks. Then he typically finds the opportunity to change levels and start wrestling.

The Pick: Austin Hubbard -175

I feel the obvious wrestling advantage here from Hubbard will get him the win in this fight. His striking and fight IQ is good enough to stay safe in the striking realm against the slugger, but it will be the well-timed takedowns that eventually get his hand raised. I feel this is a solid line to take advantage of on someone who has a clear advantage in dictating the range and pace of the fight.