UFC 289: Best Main Event Props

UFC 289: BEST MAIN EVENT PROPS – June’s pay-per-view event has a couple of fights that could easily be a main event themselves. Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush will fight in the co-main event as the top-five lightweight contenders look to move one step closer to a title shot.

The main event in Vancouver, Canada, will feature Amanda Nunes and Irene Aldana in a bout for the women’s bantamweight title. The early prelims start at 7 p.m. EDT, prelims at 8 p.m. EDT on ESPN, and the main card start at 10 p.m. EDT via PPV.

Amanda Nunes bounced back after losing her title to Julianna Pena. She won via unanimous decision and looked much better physically in their second match up. She is 22-5 in her career and just turned 35.

Irene Aldana is replacing Julianna Pena because Pena suffered a rib injury and pulled out. Aldana is 14-6 in her career, with eight victories by knockout. She has won two fights in a row, with her last loss coming against Holly Holm in a five-round main event in 2020. 

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Nunes to Win by Decision +300

Irene Aldana is a slick striker. She can knock out Nunes and make life difficult for her while standing.

The one part of her game that is lacking is her wrestling. Macy Chiasson took her down three times and controlled for three and a half minutes in her most recent fight.

She won this fight via an up kick, in which the heel landed directly on Chiasson’s liver and forced her to curl up in pain. She was not in a good position in this fight but escaped with a victory.

In her five-round fight with Holly Holm, she was taken down five times and controlled for five minutes. Holm also landed twice the number of significant strikes and dominated the fight. Nunes likely will not be as dominant on the feet as Holm, but she is a better wrestler.

If Chiasson and Holm can get Aldana to the mat, Nunes can secure multiple takedowns. She averages 2.61 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy. She has an advantage over her opponent as a wrestler in this match-up.

She dominated the fight and controlled where it took place while her opponent toughed it out until the end. Aldana is tough as nails and a good grappler who constantly attempts to scramble.

She can hang with Nunes for five rounds but likely will lose as she spends most of the fight on her back.

Aldana to Win by KO/TKO +650

The odds for the main event seem a little too wide. Nunes had trouble with Pena on the feet in both of their matchups, which caused her to lose the first one.

She also seemed unmotivated and looked to be on the verge of retirement. Nunes was in better shape and had a solid game plan in her last fight. She was able to get takedowns and control time on the mat to secure a victory impressively.

Her motivation level and conditioning are something to note going into this fight, as Aldana is a dangerous striker. She lands 5.29 significant strikes per minute and has won three of her last four via knockout.

Aldana is a problem for Nunes on the feet, but the odds are not reflecting that. Perhaps that is because of Nunes’ legacy or Aldana’s wrestling ability, but the odds could be closer. Aldana winning by knockout is good value and her likeliest method of victory.

Nunes to Win by Submission +500

Aldana is experienced in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has shown she can secure submissions.

She won via armbar against Bethe Correia in 2019 in the UFC and has won via submission three times as a professional. She can defend against Nunes’ attempts early, but it may not last after getting battered up for multiple rounds.

Nunes via knockout is at even money currently and probably not good enough value to play. This prop is decent value and not that unlikely. Aldana has never lost by submission, but she has also not fought Amanda Nunes.

For the price, it is worth a small wager.