UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman Three Best Prop Bets

UFC 286: EDWARDS VS. USMAN THREE BEST PROP BETS – Leon Edwards snatched the belt from Kamaru Usman with a head kick knockout in the final round.

Usman was winning the fight on all three judges’ scorecards, but he got caught and lost. Now he must face Edwards on his home turf at the O2 Arena in London to attempt to regain the welterweight title. The early prelims begin at 1 p.m. EDT, the prelims will start at 3 p.m. EDT on ESPN2, and the main event will begin at 5 p.m. EDT on ESPN+ PPV.

Saturday night will be the third meeting between these two. Usman won the first by decision, and Leon won the second for the title. Edwards is a southpaw fighter and is two inches taller than Usman. You can click here to read Tommy Takedown’s prediction for the main event fight. 

He is 31 years old, four years younger than Usman, and has trained in the U.K. for his entire career. His record is 20-3 with one no-contest for his career and 12-2 with one no-contest in the UFC.

Kamaru Usman is 20-2 in his career and 15-1 inside the UFC. The other loss on his record came in his second professional fight via submission in 2013. He has a two-inch reach advantage over Edwards and will likely be the heavier fighter on fight night. It has been six and a half months since he was knocked out and lost the belt.

Usman to Win by Decision +100

Before getting knocked out, Usman was in control of the entire fight against Edwards. He landed five of his 12 takedown attempts and more strikes than Edwards. Usman had 10 and a half minutes of control time and improved as the fight continued.

Edwards deserves credit for landing a perfect kick and the way he set it up. It certainly was not luck but skill shown by Edwards. Usman’s game has few holes or weaknesses, but Edwards and his team found one while watching the film and won because of it.

In the trilogy, landing that same kick will be difficult and a genuine test for both men. Usman will have to deal with the noisy crowd, and Edwards will have to face an extremely motivated and world-class opponent.

Familiar Foes

These men have met twice before, so they know each other well because of the time spent in the cage together. Usman has only been taken down once in his career, and Edwards did it in the first round of the second fight.

Edwards averages 1.39 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has proven he can secure a takedown against Usman. In terms of striking, they both absorb similar amounts of strikes per minute, but Usman lands two more significant strikes per minute than Edwards.

Usman landed 189 total strikes and 83 significant strikes in the second fight compared to 64 and 55, respectively, for Edwards. This prop is slightly undervalued, so look for better odds, but it is a highly likely outcome of this fight.

Fight to be Won by Split or Majority Decision +450

The second fight between these men took place in Salt Lake City, Utah, which has an elevation above 4200 feet. Edwards trained in the U.K. at about 500 feet and Usman had his camp in Colorado, which borders Utah.

On the scorecards, Edwards won the first round unanimously but lost the next three. In that first round, Edwards landed 13 significant strikes and 17 total strikes without missing once and secured a takedown which led to two minutes of control time.

Usman has been known to start slow, especially in five-round fights, but Edwards was giving him a real challenge. Edwards did say he felt gassed, and the altitude likely affected him.

That should not be a problem this time, and Edwards should make this a much closer fight than last time. It would not be surprising to see him win a couple of rounds, especially if he is able to land a takedown and control Usman like he showed last time before gassing out.

Usman to Win by Split or Majority Decision +600

This prop bet ties the above together for a better payout. Usman is getting older for a fighter, but has accumulated significantly less damage than most fighters.

It is doubtful that this is the fight where things start slowing down for him, and he should be able to edge out a victory over Edwards despite the crowd noise.

Edwards will have his moments in the fight but will likely need to wrestle and beat Usman at his own game to retain the belt. He may give Usman a challenge, but Usman has more experience on the mat, and it will show.