UEFA Champions League Final Pick and Prediction – June 1, 2024

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 1, 2024 — Can Borussia Dortmund finish off the storybook ending? It’s pretty unlikely, especially given the teams’ respective forms this year. While Real Madrid rolled to another LaLiga title in Spain, Dortmund finished fifth in the Bundesliga.

In past years, Dortmund would be playing for its Champions League lives, as only the top four in Germany used to qualify and the Champions League winner automatically qualifies for next year’s edition. But with the overall strength of the Bundesliga, a fifth place was granted for next year, so Dortmund is in win or lose.

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So this is about the title and nothing else, and that’s Real Madrid’s domain. Los Blancos have claimed five Champions League titles and looks to win its first title since 2022. Real fell in the semifinals last season, but they’re back on track and have just survived in each matchup.

Real won two of its three ties by a single goal and needed penalties to get by Manchester City in the quarterfinals. That fits well with Dortmund’s style, as the Black and Yellow will look to defend their way to the title. They didn’t allow a goal to Paris Saint-Germain, and they gave up just one in the round of 16 to Eindhoven. If they’re going to win this, it will have to be with defense.

Kickoff

Teams: Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid

When: Saturday, June 1 at 3 p.m. EST

Where: Wembley Stadium, London

TV: CBS

Spread: Dortmund +1.5/Real -1.5

Moneyline: Dortmund +370/Real -140/Draw +310

Win the Cup: Dortmund +220/Real -280

Totals: Over 2.5 (-145)/Under 2.5 (+115)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 1st, 2024 

Scouting Borussia Dortmund

Could this be Jaden Sancho’s revenge game? The English striker last played at Wembley in 2021 in the Euro 2020 final against Italy, where he was one of three Englishmen to miss a penalty in the shootout. Instead of finally winning a trophy for the first time since 1966, England had to watch Italy claim the crown in London. Sancho hasn’t forgotten the abuse he took from the fans after that, and he now returns with Dortmund after a falling out at Manchester United caused his transfer.

If he comes through here, it’s likely because of Marcel Sabitzer. The Austrian leads all players in the tournament with five assists, and he’ll be key to unlocking the Real defense. Dortmund will likely look for only one or two chances to go for goal, as defending will be critical to its strategy.

Scouting Real Madrid

What Peter DeBoer is to Game 7 in hockey, Real Madrid is to the Champions League final. Los Blancos are 8-0 in Champions League finals all-time, and they’ll look to be aggressive here. The goals could come from anywhere, as Rodrygo, Joselu, Vinicius Junior and former Dortmund man Jude Bellingham have all scored four times in the tournament.

Real won’t mind working to unlock the defense. They’re used to that in domestic play and posted 21 clean sheets in LaLiga this year. Winning this match 1-0 would suit their needs fine.

Best Bets

Under 2.5 Goals (+115): It’s rare for finals to produce fireworks. Neither side wants to make a mistake, and Dortmund views defense as critical to its strategy. The Black and Yellow know they cannot chase this game and must play from ahead to win. That means it’s likely to be a low-scoring, tight affair.

Real Madrid Win to Nil (+185): Dortmund are heavy underdogs for a reason. Real know how to defend well and will likely boss the possession. Los Blancos tend to adjust to whatever comes their way under Carlo Ancelotti, and a possession-heavy game won’t bother them.

Real Madrid 2-0 (+600): This seems to be the right way to play this. Real Madrid should control the flow of the play and find the first goal somewhere in the middle third of the match. A second goal will likely come in the dying stages as Dortmund get desperate and Real boss the play. The Cinderella story has been fun, but Real should be too strong.