UCLA vs. Penn State Expert Pick and Prediction – October 5, 2024

UCLA VS. PENN STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 5, 2024 — Two games into its first Big Ten campaign, and UCLA has to be wondering if this was really such a good idea. Leaving aside the travel nightmare of going out to central Pennsylvania and to New Jersey over a span of three weeks (somehow, the Big Ten decided it was a good idea to have the Bruins go home to play Minnesota in between that), UCLA just hasn’t been any good.

Part of that has been because of the toxic culture created under former coach Chip Kelly. But this is a program that’s been lost at sea for 25 years. The Bruins haven’t played in a big-time bowl since 1999 under Bob Toledo, who has been retired 10 years. It hasn’t mattered who UCLA has tried; it’s been kind of an afterthought.

Related: NC State vs. Clemson: Pick and Prediction

And in the Big Ten, UCLA has gone from afterthought to overmatched. The Bruins have just one win to their name, and it was a three-point survival at Hawai’i. Otherwise, the Bruins have gotten squashed by Oregon, routed by LSU and embarrassed at home by Indiana. The defeat at the hands of the Hoosiers was particularly galling, given both schools have new coaches. Indiana entered that game having gone 2-15 in its past 17 Big Ten games and promptly blasted the Bruins by 29 points.

And now UCLA gets to take on Penn State, which has a pretty good history of pounding the daylights out of Power 4 opponents not named Ohio State and Michigan. In the Nittany Lions’ past 17 games against someone other than the Buckeyes or Wolverines, you could have taken Penn State -10 and covered 15 times. That bet’s not available this time, but that underscores just how ugly it’s been for teams trying to take Penn State’s role as No. 3 in the Big Ten.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, October 5 at Noon EST

Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa.

TV: Fox

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 30th, 2024.

UCLA vs. Penn State In-Season Trends

Whether Penn State covers depends almost entirely on how the opponent is perceived. Against West Virginia, the Nittany Lions were the beneficiary of people reading too much into the previous season. Against Illinois, that got flipped on its head and worked against Penn State. But overall, the Nittany Lions have mostly been a solid play for the past two-plus seasons. They’ve gone 20-7-1 ATS since 2022, and three of the seven came against the behemoths of Ohio State and Michigan.

Related: Michigan State vs. Oregon Pick and Prediction

Surprisingly, UCLA has actually covered the past two games against LSU and Oregon. The sense is that while the Bruins are bad, they’re not quite as bad as four touchdowns worse. They’ve covered in both games where they were getting at least 20 points, and they’re in that spot again.

Weather

This should be a good day for football. Temperatures will sit at 71 degrees at kickoff with winds of up to 10 miles per hour.

The Difference-Makers

UCLA has been just awful on offense. T.J. Harden has only managed three yards a carry, and that’s the best that the Bruins have. It only gets worse with the pass, with Ethan Garbers throwing six interceptions against three touchdowns. For the year, UCLA has yet to top 20 points in a game.

Related: Why Matt Rhule Passed Deion Sanders

Drew Allar looks much more comfortable in the pocket than he did last year. He has been steady, not spectacular, but Penn State has not needed spectacular. With eight scores against one pick, the Nittany Lions know he won’t lose the game for them.

The Pick

The biggest concern is whether UCLA can move the ball at all. Penn State’s likely to call off the dog pretty early in this game, as Franklin likes to get his backups on the field as early as possible in games like these.

If that happens, UCLA might get a touchdown or two in garbage time. But the Penn State defense has been rock-solid in its past two games, and the Bruins aren’t moving the football at all. The spread is higher than I want it to be, given that UCLA might not score. With where things are, I prefer the under.