UC San Diego vs. Cal Poly Expert Pick and Prediction – February 20, 2025

UC SAN DIEGO VS. CAL POLY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 20, 2025 — A Big West team on the bubble? UC-San Diego is no ordinary Big West team. The Tritons have been building toward this moment since the pandemic, when they went 30-1 in their final year in Division II and didn’t get a chance to win an outgoing national title. Now they have a real chance to earn their first NCAA tournament bid in their fifth year in Division I.

At 22-4, the Tritons have put together a resume that’s light on names but heavy on getting results. One of the more impressive things on the resume is a loss, a 63-58 result at San Diego State. Otherwise, they have wins at Utah State and San Diego and have mostly simply drilled opponent after opponent.

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Cal Poly fits into that category. The Mustangs came nowhere close in the first meeting and are a mere 4-10 in the Big West. There’s no chance of them making any kind of run to anything without winning the Big West tournament, and if they do, they’re likely heading to Dayton.

But this game is more about UC-San Diego. The Tritons’ path to the promised land is not simple, but it’s there. To make it without winning the automatic bid, UC-San Diego has to run the table over the final six league games, then reach the final of the Big West tournament. If they reach the Big West final at 29-4 and lose to any of UC Irvine, Cal State Northridge or UC Riverside, they’ll probably like what they hear on Selection Sunday. But any loss before the Big West tournament probably forces the Tritons to win the title to make it to the Big Dance.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Thursday, February 20 at 10 p.m.

Where: Mott Center, San Luis Obispo, Calif.

TV: ESPN+

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

UC San Diego vs. Cal Poly In-Season Trends

The gap in quality between these teams has become apparent over the past three seasons. UC-San Diego joined the Big West in 2022 during its transition from Division I, and the Tritons were immediately swept by the Mustangs. Since then, UCSD has won four straight and taken full advantage of how the Mustangs like to play.

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Cal Poly is all gas, no brakes, much to its detriment. In this matchup specifically, it’s a really bad place for them to be. UC San Diego leads the Big West in steals and commits the fewest turnovers. Cal Poly leads the Big West in turnovers. The Mustangs have played to the over in five straight meetings with the Tritons which is why the number is as high as it is.

The Difference-Makers

What really has to scare the Mustangs is the fact that they actually took care of the ball fairly well last time, but still got blitzed down the stretch. Cal Poly only turned the ball over 15 times for the game, but got outscored 33-9 over the final nine minutes and lost by 27. To stay in the game this time, Cal Poly needs Owen Koonce to keep hitting shots and for someone else to give him some help.

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Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones has been as reliable as it gets for UCSD, and he made a living at the free throw line last time. Whether he’s scoring from the interior or from the foul line, he’s likely to play a key role for the Tritons.

The Pick

The Mustangs’ ball security issues are likely to be a major problem in this game. UCSD should be able to force a lot of mistakes and pull away for a comfortable victory.

The Tritons are going to have harder games than this on their quest to grab an at-large bid. But there are no small games when you’re in the Big West and have a shot to get a bid. Everything has to go perfect from here for UCSD. So far, the Tritons have understood the assignment. That’s not likely to change here.