Top 3 Prop Picks For Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers – January 28, 2024

TOP 3 PROP PICKS FOR DETROIT LIONS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – JANUARY 28, 2024 — Greetings, football fans! Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

We have reached the conference championship round of the postseason where four teams square off for an opportunity to move one step closer to playing in the NFL’s biggest game. On the NFC side, we have the Detroit Lions going on the road to take on the top-seeded San Franciso 49ers.

For the Lions, this is their first trip to this round since 1992. In that matchup against the team formerly known as the Washington Redskins, they were soundly defeated to the tune of 41-10.

On the other side of this matchup, this is the third straight trip to this round for the Niners. Last season, thanks in part to injuries, San Francisco was no match for the Philadelphia Eagles as the home team cruised to a 31-7 victory.

With that in mind, both teams are hoping for a better outcome this time around. So, without further delay, here are the top three prop picks for this contest.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, January 28, 2024

Time: 6:30 PM ET

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

TV: FOX

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Pick #1: Brock Purdy over/under 282.5 passing yards

Purdy has -115 odds of surpassing the estimated yards total and -115 odds of finishing with less than 279.5 passing yards. Let’s look at how his numbers compare to the projected yards total for this matchup.

• During the season, Purdy accumulated 4,280 in 16 starts. That comes out to an average of 267.5 yards per contest.
• In eight home games this season – including last week’s 24-21 over the Green Bay Packers – Purdy is averaging 302.4 yards per outing. Not too bad for a player that was given the name “Mr. Irrelevant” for being the last pick of his draft class.
• Finally, Purdy has faced NFC teams 12 times this season. In those contests, he averaged 272.7 yards per outing.

Based on the above trends, it appears going with the under would be the best choice. However, the Lions have given up the most passing yards of all the playoff teams (338 YPG). Simply put, Purdy reaching the 280-yard threshold is not out of the realm of possibility.

Prediction: Brock Purdy OVER 279.5 passing yards

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Pick #2: Jared Goff over/under 258.5 passing yards

The Lions quarterback currently has -115 odds of throwing for more than 258.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 258.5 yards. Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected passing yards total.

• Goff finished the regular season with 4,575 yards across 17 games. That averages out to 269.1 yards per outing.
• In his two playoff games against the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he is averaging 282 yards per game while completing over 70 percent of his passes.
• Goff has played eight road games this season. In those games, he has averaged 280 passing yards per contest.

Prediction: Jared Goff OVER 258.5 passing yards

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Pick #3: Christian McCaffrey over/under 84.5 rushing yards

• During the regular season, McCaffrey led the league in rushing with 1,459 yards across 16 starts. That is an average of 91.2 yards per game.
• McCaffrey played seven home games during the season. In those contests, he accumulated 622 yards, which averages out to 88.9 yards per outing.
• In last week’s divisional-round matchup against the Green Bay Packers – also a home game — McCaffrey spearheaded the Niners’ ground game with 98 yards on 17 carries for an average of 5.8 yards per rushing attempt.

Earlier, I mentioned how the Lions have not been great at defending against the pass. So, in the spirit of objectivity, it is worth noting they are ranked fourth in rushing yards allowed per contest in the postseason at 78.5 yards.

What is even more impressive is that two of the teams who are ranked ahead of them – the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens – have only played one playoff game, while the Lions have played two postseason games.

Despite that stat, I am going with the “over” for McCaffrey.

Prediction: Christian McCaffrey OVER 84.5 rushing yards