Toby’s Week 16 NFL Picks and Previews for Every Game
TOBY’S WEEK 16 NFL PICKS AND PREVIEWS FOR EVERY GAME – What a weird week. All the bets I liked either lost or pushed.
I was right on most of the picks that I didn’t like. My over/unders (bets published under the “Daily Picks” section) are flawless.
Related: Steelers vs. Bengals Expert Pick
My ATS picks are extremely flawed. A huge disclaimer I must legally place here before my picks: don’t listen to me. Please. Please do not do what I suggest that you do. Do the opposite. You’ll be able to retire fading my NFC South picks. I am the worst NFC South prognosticator around.
You know what, I should probably just ignore that division.
Week 15 Total (All Games): 7-6-3
Season Total: 106-110
Week 15 High Confidence Games: 0-2-3
Season Total: 39-45
As always, this upcoming week will be the one where I finally turn it around and put up a 16-0. Sixteen-leg parlay ‘bout to hit!
In reality, this is a weird week with a lot of awkward spreads and I am absolutely avoiding half of these games. If you have a strong feeling about Green Bay laying 5 points in Carolina, then I think your brain should be preserved for future studies.
HIGH CONFIDENCE GAMES
#1: CINCINNATI BENGALS (+2) @ PITTSBURGH
This is a spot where I would usually hammer Pittsburgh, but then again, so was last week. And they looked interested in doing absolutely anything besides playing the Colts.
There are players I’ve never heard of just getting dusted all over the field. They can’t run, can’t tackle, can’t do anything.
And I’m only laying two points here? Because Mason Rudolph may right this ship? Yeah I’m going to lock in the Bengals here.
#2: SEATTLE @ TENNESSEE (+3)
This one just seems to check every box for taking the home underdog. Vrabel seems to be a good underdog type of coach. Seattle is on a short week, fresh off an emotional victory, and they are travelling across the country to play in the 1 pm slot. Just screams letdown to me.
And I mean, really, that was one of the worst “clutch game-winning drives!” I’ve seen. And I’m a charter member of the Drew Lock Fan Club.
I would take him in Pittsburgh in a heartbeat. It was like he was desperate to be picked off and Philly just wouldn’t oblige him. Pumping the brakes a bit on the Lock stock.
#3: CLEVELAND (-2.5) @ HOUSTON
The concussion keeping Stroud out of last week’s game caught me by surprise, though I was lucky to get a push on that one.
This week, he’s still not out of the protocol. On top of that, Cleveland just has a better roster top to bottom than the Texans do. I’m quite confident in this, which means it will be a disastrous loss.
I know how these things work.
#4: DETROIT (-3.5) @ MINNESOTA
Jared Goff, in the cold elements of Minnesota, as he waits outside the airport for the team bus to take him to the nice, comfortable climate-controlled dome downtown. I think he can handle it.
This seems like a bit of a discount on Detroit due to Minnesota playing surprisingly well last week in Cincinnati, in a game they probably should have won.
This seems like as good a time as ever to fade Nick Mullens into outer space. Goff might throw 7 TDs, unless someone accidentally leaves a window open.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE GAMES
#5: INDIANAPOLIS (+1) @ ATLANTA
Don’t get it twisted, a good team would have beaten the Steelers 50-0 last week. Gardner Minshew missed guys running wide open all game and also nearly garroted his best receiver. Eventually you run out of guys to send to the hospital.
That being said, I still think the Colts are better than Atlanta, who somehow lost 9-7 last week in Carolina. I don’t know what they are doing in the NFC South but Congress should probably investigate.
However, I can’t go any higher than “moderate” confidence here due to my new rule about pretending this division does not exist.
#6: ARIZONA (+4.5) @ CHICAGO
Chicago shouldn’t be getting 4.5 points against the Saskatchewan Rough Riders.
I don’t care if it’s going to be cold, I’m absolutely not laying 4.5 points for the Bears against anybody.
#7: BUFFALO (-12) @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Realized my mistake too late last week and missed the only opportunity to bet against Easton Stick on a single-digit line.
Of course, I also parlayed Vegas -3 with the UNDER, so in the end “ball don’t lie”. The Chargers are playing as if their lives do not depend in the slightest bit on it. They make the Steelers look like a pack of hungry wolves.
#8: DALLAS (+1.5) @ MIAMI
The two most “fraudulent” teams in the NFL face off this week, as Dallas travels to Miami. At least Dallas has beaten a good team once.
I consider Miami to be the single most fraudulent team, so give me the #2 frauds and a point and a half.
LOW CONFIDENCE GAMES
#9: WASHINGTON (+3) @ NEW YORK JETS
This game just sucks. Washington is bad, New York is bad, Sam Howell is bad but people think he’s good, Zach Wilson is concussed and terrible when he’s not and, really, he’s not due to have another good game until early 2024.
Can Howell get through this game without throwing too many picks? I guess if I had to pick I would take Washington and the points, but I don’t have to pick and so I’m not going to. I wouldn’t even televise this game inside the stadium. Only in Guantanamo.
#10: JACKSONVILLE (+0.5) @ TAMPA BAY
I go back and forth on this one, settling for now on the Jags. I don’t love either team, but I also don’t hate either team. Both teams are kinda just there.
So I guess I hope everyone just has fun out there! Go sports!
#11: LAS VEGAS (+10) @ KANSAS CITY
Vegas usually plays the Chiefs well, and for half of their first matchup this was again the case before KC pulled away in the 2nd half.
So I’ll run it back and hope that the Raiders can keep it close this time. I assume they will score somewhere between the 0 points and 63 points that they’ve put up in each of their last two games.
#12: NEW YORK GIANTS (+12) @ PHILADELPHIA
No feel for this one. The Giants let me down big time last week in New Orleans but I can’t overreact. The Eagles have been struggling for a bit themselves, but I can’t overreact to that either.
I just have to regular react, by avoiding this game as if it caused cancer.
#13: NEW ORLEANS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4)
I have no feel for the Saints. I do think they suck, so I’ll take the Rams, but I’m not putting a single cent behind this pick.
I might bet one single Dogecoin if you get me drunk enough.
#14: GREEN BAY (-5) @ CAROLINA
What is this game? For real, what? This game is nonsense, this spread is awkward and weird, every Panthers game ends like 11-6, they don’t play in a cold area yet they also don’t play in a particularly warm area, it could rain or snow or be chilly or be nice and I just don’t want to even think about this game. Carolina is bad and so my default pick is “not Carolina”. Cool!
#15: BALTIMORE +5.5 @ SAN FRANCISCO
The NFL has scheduled two Saturday games this week along with three (!?!?!?!) Monday Night games.
This is the only good Monday night game, and what a game it appears to be.
I don’t have a great feel for this one though it should tell us quite a bit going forward. I consider Baltimore to possibly be the best team in the NFL this year, and so I have to take them getting 5.5 points until proven otherwise.
And if San Francisco drills them this week, it will have been proven otherwise.
#16: NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER -6.5
No. I wouldn’t bet your money on this game. I have no feel for the Patriots and really, I don’t want to have one.
