Toby’s Week 13 NFL Picks and Previews for Every Game

I like the way last week worked out so I’m going to switch this column to that format, at least until I go 4-12 again. This is the last week with byes, as the NFL seems to be determined to use the weirdest possible convention for their bye format.

Related: Thursday Night Football: Seahawks at Cowboys Expert Pick

Maybe next year we can get one team with a bye in week 18 while three others somehow play each other in Belarus. Think about it, Roger!

Hey, click here check out the new Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks for all your daily best bets for the experts. 

I don’t love most of these lines but I also don’t hate most of them, either. Sing with me!

♫ It’s the most milquetoast time, of the year! ♫

There is not a single game this week that I would be confident calling a “lock”, so I am going to violate the Geneva Convention and not declare a “lock of the week” or a “flaming 5” or even a “raging trashfire top 3” this week.

It’s just – some I like, some I’m ok with, others I don’t really want any part of. Simple. Traditional! Just the way God intended for you to bet.

HIGH CONFIDENCE GAMES

#1: DENVER +3.5 @ HOUSTON

Readers who have been with me all the way back in 2023 when I started writing this column will know that I’m a big CJ Stroud stan, no cap.

A card-carrying member of the Stroud Boys. I’m rolling Stroud. I didn’t think he’d be this good this quickly but here we are and the guy looks generational. He legitimately throws the ball like a dart.

That being said, I think the Texans are still a relatively bad overall roster and I’ve also been playing Denver’s “resurgence” in recent weeks, and this week is no different. I think about it like this – who would you pick to win this game straight up?

I think I’d say Denver but I wouldn’t confidently be able to pick either way. If I get one of them +3.5? Well in that case I’m all over the points.

#2: MIAMI -9.5 @ WASHINGTON

No working head coach has ever been as fired as 2023 Ron Rivera. His seat is beyond hot – it’s an electric chair. He’s Ted Bundy. I said it here first, Ron Rivera is exactly the same as Ted Bundy*.

*Ron Rivera is almost certainly a good man and is not anything like Ted Bundy please don’t sue me, Ron Rivera.

Last week we got Miami -9.5 against whatever it is that the Jets are rolling out there. Washington probably isn’t as bad as the Jets, but their defense is an absolute sieve. The only thing I’m really worried about here is Sam Howell throwing 60 second half passes against prevent defenses and cutting a 25 point deficit to an 8 point loss at the final whistle.

Weather’s going to be fine, the Dolphins’ primary identity seems to be destroying bad teams, and the Commanders are a bad team. What more do bettors want? 

#3: SEATTLE @ DALLAS -8.5

Speaking of destroying bad teams, herrrrre’s Dallas! Seattle isn’t a bad team, but they certainly aren’t a very good team.

In fact, they may be the NFL’s sole mediocre team. Everyone else is good or bad. Maybe the Steelers are in there with them.

They should have a Mid Bowl this year. They could even hold it in America’s most okay city, Dallas! I’m going to put together a plan for this and upload it to TikTok.

So Seattle isn’t bad, but they do seem to be one of those teams that good teams destroy.

That has played out when they went up against Baltimore and San Francisco. I will defend Dak Prescott as the most unfairly maligned QB in the entire league. he has been playing at a very high level since whatever it was they put out there in on Prime Time in the Bay back in Week 6.

Every time Dak Prescott throws an incompletion, insane Cowboys fans clamor for Trey Lance or Cooper Rush or some other rando QB with an adult film star’s name. They did it to Romo and now they do it to Prescott. This fanbase absolutely deserves an entire season of Cooper Rush and I hope they get it in 2024.

Where was I? Oh yeah, Dallas shreds Seattle to pieces tonight. That’s it for the high confidence picks and even these are a bit shaky.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE GAMES

#4: ATLANTA -2.5 @ NY JETS

I hate Atlanta, but this has nothing to do with Atlanta. This is a bet against Tim Boyle, whom the Jets are for some reason going to roll out there again even though he hasn’t been good at any level of competition.

Maybe high school – he had to have been good in high school. And while the Falcons do employ a high school coaching staff, they are still going to put up significantly more resistance than Hartford High did.

What is the end game here? Why not sign Joe Flacco? He played ok for them last year. I’d rather see them sign 80-something year old Joe Namath than roll out another week of Tim Boyle. Tune in for this week’s new episode of “The Boyling Point: Where an Entire Front Office gets Fired”.

The only thing keeping this out of the top tier is, well, betting on Atlanta.

Yes, Tim Boyle makes Desmond Ridder look like Superman, but he’s still Desmond Ridder. His kryptonite is “defense”, and the Jets field a very good one. But unless this game ends something like 3-0, I just don’t see the Jets being competitive for as long as they refuse to roster an actual QB.

I’m overruling my numbers here, which somehow still tell me to take the Jets. I would rather take the Winnipeg Jets to beat the Falcons this week. 

#5: SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA +2.5

This is a surprising line. I know San Francisco is good, but obviously Philly is too and they aren’t the ones that have to travel across the country. This is another one where I don’t know who I would pick straight-up, so give me the points.

#6: KANSAS CITY -6.5 @ GREEN BAY

I know Green Bay has looked better recently, but I just have a feeling that Kansas City walks into the moderately chilly tundra and walks all over the Packers.

Prove me wrong, you cheese-worshipping lunatics.

#7: INDIANAPOLIS -1 @ TENNESSEE

This seems knee-jerk after the hot-and-cold Colts poured cold water all over my Tampa pick last week.

I don’t think it is; however, as I have been clear in my belief that Tennessee is a bad team. Not just a not-good team, but an actual bad team.

I only want to take Tennessee against horrible teams. The Colts are simply not good, which should be enough to vanquish the Titans and their sterile homefield. 

#8: CAROLINA @ TAMPA -5.5

Yeah I’m back on Tampa, whatever.

I don’t think Frank Reich was the sole reason that Carolina is the worst team in the NFL this year, so I also don’t really care that they fired him.

This team is still trotting Bryce Young out there. As long as they are doing that, I’m picking against them.

#9: DETROIT -4 @ NEW ORLEANS

This is a borderline no-confidence game, as I don’t know what to expect from Detroit, nor do I know what to expect from New Orleans. I think Detroit is good and New Orleans is average at best. Given that thought, this seems like a good buy-low opportunity.

Plus, this is yet another climate-controlled game for the Lions, as the difference between Jared Goff the All-Pro and Jared Goff the Unemployable Teamkiller is a moderate breeze.

LOW CONFIDENCE GAMES

#10: ARIZONA @ PITTSBURGH -5.5

This is kind of a tough spot. My numbers say Pittsburgh wins easily at home. My head knows that the Steelers always play poorly in games like this against the league’s bottom-feeders.

My medulla oblongata doesn’t think this Steelers team is even good enough to have a let-down game.

Like, yeah, they fired Matt Canada and reached the magical “decent game offensively” threshold, but at the same time they only scored 16 points. In the end, I’m not confident betting either side though I lean Pittsburgh.

#11: CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE -9

I don’t have a lot of faith in Jacksonville. While their offense has looked better recently, I have absolutely no faith in the Jake Browning Bengals doing anything to merit betting consideration.

Jake B was floating balls all over The Wallet (a nickname I just made up right now for Paycor Stadium) and he came this close to getting picked off at least fifty thousand times last week.

Balls were getting tipped up and caught by Ja’marr Chase or hitting off Steeler DB’s heads and I just don’t see him being as fortunate this week in the House that Keenan McCardell Built. Steelers should have had a handful of pick-threes last week.

 #12: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -6 @ NEW ENGLAND

Nope. The Patriots are still a big nope, I just pretend they don’t exist. Bailey Zappe is probably going to be the QB and I don’t care. I’m not watching it. This game should be televised in prisons.

Add the Chargers to the mix? Your guess is as good as mine.

 #13: CLEVELAND +3.5 @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

Not touching either LA team this week, but at least this game has some actual entertainment appeal.

I do want to see how the Browns look with 38 year old Joe Flacco returning back into our lives. Flacco v. Stafford, welcome back to 2011! Tiger Blood!

Man that was a dumb time. I guess every time is kinda dumb when you really think about it. I mean, the height of pop culture was once a bald guy with a mullet hitting watermelons with a hammer.

Good luck this week and may you smash your watermelons all over the front row.