Toby’s NFL Week 11 Betting Recap and Thanksgiving Day Picks

Nothing earth-shattering this week, but, on the plus side, I did beat the flipped quarter that has been destroying me over the last month and a half. And I won my top game (Steelers @ Browns), which is great, as I gave it the Fred Smith FedEx treatment and bet my remaining bankroll on it.

A true double or nothing. Well, I guess a true -110 or nothing. Vegas get their vig no matter what.

Week 11 Total (All Games): 8-5-1

Season Total: 79-83

Week 11 “Green” Games: 2-2

Season Total: 32-39

Week 11 Recap

STEELERS @ BROWNS

It appears that betting on DTR and the Browns is playing with fire, so we’re not going to be making a habit of it but man, are the Steeler bad.

Related: NFL Week 12 Fantasy Sleepers

Kenny Pickett showed some promise last season but he simply hasn’t improved and the offensive environment around him is catastrophically bad. Jaylen Warren managed more offense in 9 carries than Pickett did in 28 pass attempts. Apparently KP8 is just a play on the amount of TDs you can expect him to throw in any given season.

COWBOYS @ PANTHERS

You can generally count on the Cowboys blowing out bad teams, and that’s exactly what they did here. Duron Bland simply became Trevon Diggs after Diggs suffered his knee injury, and shapeshifting is a wonderful ability for a defense to have.

RAIDERS @ DOLPHINS

The Raiders defense continues to play inspired since they sent Josh McDaniels adrift, and Aiden O’Connell looks to at least have a future in the NFL as a backup if he doesn’t turn into a decent starter.

But I still think this one was mostly about the Dolphins playing a sloppy in some big moments and the Raiders taking advantage. Either way I’m wearing the L on this one, just like every fantasy team that started Devon Achane.

JETS @ BILLS

Talk about a misread. The Bills did not suffer a repeat of the season opener and appear to have ended Zach Wilson’s Jet career for good. Josh Allen came out in the first game after the Ken Dorsey era and looked like Josh Allen again. 

SEAHAWKS @ RAMS

This was a bet on the Rams just plain owning the Seahawks in recent years, but in reality it was just a lucky bet that hit primarily because Geno Smith got injured.

The Seahawks were generally controlling this game until they suffered a quarter and a half of Drew Lock floating deep balls to nowhere, and they still almost won it when Geno came back and set up a last second 55 yarder for the win.

Not blaming the kicker here as he made some big kicks up to that point – they just couldn’t move the ball with Lock. He’s the most hot or cold QB in the entire NFL, in my opinion.

BENGALS @ RAVENS

This one actually went mostly as I predicted on the scoreboard, but not on the field. Joe Burrow’s season ended early and the Ravens were gifted an easy win. It didn’t come without a cost however as Mark Andrews also suffered a season-ending injury, and it will be interesting to see how that affects their offense.

Lamar Jackson also went down but it looks like he’s fine. The Bengals unfortunately are not fine, as they hand over the keys to Random McPasser out of the University of Who Cares.

BEARS @ LIONS

Justin Fields has not been great by any stretch but the Bears with Fields do have a way of putting up points when they get rolling. They were also jackin’ Goff, forcing the Lions QB into multiple picks.

They didn’t do enough in the 4th quarter however and the Lions got it together and came back to steal a win, as good teams tend to do if you let them hang around.

CHARGERS @ PACKERS

This game turned out to be a pretty exciting one, as neither team played a whole lot of defense.

It came down to the Chargers needing to not Charger but of course that was too much to ask of them, and Quentin Johnston poured even more fuel onto the “Quinton Johnston is a bust” fire. He’s looking very Josh Doctson.

GIANTS @ COMMANDERS

I had this one pegged as a weird one, with Washington being held somewhat in check by the Giants defense. I did NOT however imagine that anyone could make Tommy DeVito look competent.

He looked more than competent, putting up just under 250 yards and 3 TDs on this “defense”. Ron Rivera should be fired before I finish this article.

Sure, Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito have been able to manage, but I mean really how can Daniel Jones even get a pass off with an offensive line this bad? This is probably the 2nd New York football QB career that ended on Sunday. 

TITANS @ JAGUARS

I’ve got nothing on this one. I’m not sure it was even televised outside of maybe five streets.  I’m still not buying the Jags as a legit contender but a few more games like this and I may have to change that. 

CARDINALS @ TEXANS

I had this one as a stayaway and that’s just how it played out, as it ends in a push. CJ Stroud had his moments but uncharacteristically threw three interceptions, which was one more than his entire season total going into this one. Tank Dell had a big game and looks to be everything he was in college, where he led the entire NCAA in receiving yards last year at Houston.

The Cardinals appear to be headed for like the 7th overall pick and a half-hearted future commitment to Kyler Murray.

EAGLES @ CHIEFS

I wanted nothing to do with this one but if I had to pick, I would have simply taken the Eagles and the points and hoped for the best. And that’s just what happened as MVS did what tall fast straight line WRs tend to do and just dropped the potential game winner.

VIKINGS @ BRONCOS

Similar scenario to Eagles/Chiefs except this time I would have taken the home team laying a few points, and I would have lost. There were a lot of games that came down to the last drive that I wanted nothing to do with.

BUCS @ 49ERS

Oddly enough, my least favorite bet was the most accurate prediction I had, as the 27-14 final very nearly hit my 27-10 prediction. I still like the Bucs if they get a favorable line but this was not one of them.

THANKSGIVING DAY PICKS

Just in case I can’t get an article out in time for these games, I’m going to put my picks on the record. I’m on the road this week so all picks are vibes based rather than algorithmic. 

GREEN BAY +7.5 @ DETROIT

It’s rare that Detroit is, you know, good – usually this is a good spot to take them as a home dog. Not this year, as they are laying a full touchdown to a division rival that traditionally takes them to the woodshed every time they play.

That was with Favre and Rodgers, of course – not with Jordan Love. Love has played better recently and their offense has shown more of a big play component, but he’s still been mostly down this season.

My numbers suggest Detroit wins this one by two scores, but the vibes say take the points and that’s exactly what I’m going to do.

WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -11

I know this is a divisional game and Washington plays Philadelphia very well, but Dallas blows out bad teams and the Commanders are quite simply a bad team. I’m going to keep riding Dallas to cover big spreads about bottom-feeders. And I mean come on, 3 TDs to Tommy DeVito? What? RON WHAT ARE YOU DOING MAN

SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 @ SEATTLE

The Rams aren’t the only division opponent that owns the Seahawks; the Niners seems to blow them out every time they play. Why would this time be any different? Geno or no Geno I’m riding with the Niners on this one.