Toby’s Favorite NFL Season Win Totals
Guys, it’s finally happening! There are going to be NFL games soon! You don’t need to bet on the Toronto Blue Jays anymore? Which is good, because I don’t think I could name a single pitcher on the Blue Jays’ roster. Is Tom Henke still there?
Before I get into my picks for the 2024 season, let’s look at how I did last season. I mean, would you want to take advice from a guy who lost all his bets?
*SOS = Strength of Schedule, 1st is the most difficult schedule and 32nd is the easiest
**Green Bay’s even odds over/under last year was 7.5, I took them +275 to go over 9.5
*** Kansas City’s even odds O/U was somewhere significantly higher than 9.5, I took this at -500
I have a few teams I didn’t bet on last year but wanted to due to peripherals, and many would have won (NE Under, NYJ Under, NYG Under). I would have been wrong on the Lions but I’m also considering these anecdotes for my picks this season.
Lessons for 2024
Lessons I’m taking this year are to trust in the strength of schedule and situations a bit more this year. By situations I mean things like, is there a new QB who everyone expects to be good, are the “vibes” weird, etc. Also I’m not making weird bets anymore like I did on Green Bay and Kansas City. Green Bay should have been a win if I weren’t greedy and there’s too much that could go wrong to take a -500 bet on a team winning 10+ games.
So before I get started with my picks, here are my projected strengths of schedule and overall win projections for 2024:
(#1 is easiest projected schedule/#32 is most difficult – these are my own projections)
The strength-of-schedule calcs are baked into the predictions above.
Once again, the NFC South teams get a cakewalk – excluding Tampa I guess, who draw the Niners, Ravens and Lions in their three “competitive balance” games. I still love Tampa going over their total this season. The AFC East is all over the place, with the Jets getting a relatively easy schedule while the Bills are saddled with what I am predicting to be the most difficult slate.
Just a note that most of the SoS projections that you’ll find on the internet just use last year’s winning percentage as their data, I however don’t think that is a very good way to look at it as those fluctuate wildly year-to-year. I’m weighting teams based on how good I think they will be in a vacuum.
Enough chit chat, time for my 2024 bets. Note that the above table is only a guide, I do not necessarily like every bet per my table nor do I like them in that order.
TAMPA BAY OVER 7.5 (-150) – Projected Finish 11-6 / SoS: 23rd most difficult
Right off the bat, I’m taking the team that I just mentioned had some difficult games to go over their season win total line. What a process, right? I mean, it’s still a trash schedule outside of those three tough draws. Let Baker Bake!
I have a bet at over 8.5 placed months ago for Tampa, but for whatever reason all the books took it down and are instead offering over 7.5 at -150 or over 9.5 at +215. While I’m generally playing it safe this season, in this case I’m going for the glory and picking the higher total for a better payout.
Sidenote: Maybe I’ve only noticed it this year, but mannn I hate the vigs we’re getting from every sportsbook. So many -135s and -150s. Not a fan.
DETROIT OVER 10.5 (-135) – Projected Finish 12-5 / SoS: 13th most difficult
I have Detroit down for a relatively difficult schedule, which should temper my expectations for them this year. They are also Detroit. There are no analytics currently available that can make this team not the Detroit Lions, who had one playoff win since 1960 before nearly going to the Super Bowl last season.
Yet I still love their over this year. This team is that good. They have a good coaching staff, Great with a capital G offensive line, a young rapidly improving defense, and some good skill pieces offensively. Would I prefer that they had one more good receiver other than the eternal projection that is Jameson Williams?
Yes, I would. I’d prefer Amon-Ra St. Brown didn’t need to get 250 targets. But that seems like a minor quibble, as the QB, RBs and WRs are heavily a function of infrastructure and Detroit is rock-solid there with arguably the best OL in the entire league. Overall I have them as my 2nd best team this year behind San Francisco.
And don’t let that strength of schedule fool you. Sure, they play some good teams this year. However, they will be playing 14 of their 17 games indoors this season. 14! That is absurd. This team is going to have more indoor games this year than the Pistons. We all know that Jared Goff melts down in the face of a crisp breeze, but he’s not going to be facing many breezes this year. Of these outdoor games, only one is likely to have particularly nasty weather (@Chicago week 16).
The other two outdoor affairs are a game in Green Bay on November 3rd and a trip to San Francisco in Week 17. Green Bay may not be pleasant in early November but it’s still likely to be above freezing. I’m finally in on the Lions, for probably the first time in my entire life. Roar.
NEW YORK GIANTS UNDER 6.5 (-135) – Projected Finish 4-13 / SoS: 15th most difficult
They can’t all go over. Daniel Jones is already throwing atrocious interceptions this preseason, so he looks like he’s back to form. Their skill core consists of one receiver. They have one good offensive lineman. Gonna be a lot of Daboll screaming on Sportscenter this year.
DALLAS OVER 10.5 (+150) – Projected Finish 12-5 / SoS: 21st most difficult
Gonna go out on a limb here and take the kings of the regular season to win 11+ games. This team is very heavily reliant on a few star players so injuries are always a huge concern but I’m not here to bet on doctors. I’m here to bet on a team that gets to play multiple games against Daniel Jones.
JACKSONVILLE UNDER 8.5 (-110) – Projected Finish 7-10 / SoS: 20th most difficult
Everybody seems to think Jacksonville is good. I don’t get it. When I watch them, I see a lot of not good. The defense is full of random guys, Trevor Lawrence is the highest paid player in the NFL despite maybe being a top 15 QB, and Travis Etienne is a dynamic, explosive runner who averages like 3.8 yards per carry.
That’s even lower than Kenny Pickett’s yards per pass attempt! This team previously had the benefit of playing in a dumpster fire of a division, but that is no longer the case. Houston is good, Indianapolis may be good, and Tennessee…ok yeah just focus on Houston and Indy.
I’m expecting another long season of people making excuses for Lawrence.
CLEVELAND BROWNS OVER 8.5 (-135) – Projected Finish 10-7 / SoS: 18th most difficult
Yes, Cleveland plays in a tough division. They still have an incredibly stacked roster that you could argue is one of the top 3 in the NFL from a pure talent perspective. They also went 11-6 last season despite playing DTR and Joe Flacco at QB for most of the year. I would type DTR’s name but I can’t even remember it and don’t feel like looking it up. That says a lot about his skill level.
While it’s clear that Deshaun Watson is very unlikely to regain the form of what is now four years ago when he was last good, I do think it’s likely that he finally plays a season without breaking in half every other week. And even if he doesn’t return to his previous form, whatever he is now should be easily enough for the Browns to win 9 games. It could be yet another happy ending this season for Watson.
Given their talent and the likelihood of a slight regression for the Ravens, I’m very tempted to take them over 9.5 at +150 odds. Maybe we’ll get a Detroit/Cleveland Super Bowl, which I assume would be immediately followed by a long nuclear winter.
NEW ORLEANS OVER 7.5 (-120) – Projected Finish 9-8 / SoS: 31st most difficult
I don’t get this one. New Orleans isn’t good, but they weren’t good last year and still got to 9 wins against the league’s easiest schedule. This year they have….the 2nd easiest schedule.
The coaching staff is bad but they were there being terrible last year. The QB is aggressively mediocre but he was also there underwhelming last year. The OL might be worse this year but…it was bad last year. I’m not going to watch any of their 8 wins this season but I trust that they will happen.
NEW ENGLAND OVER 4.5 (-135) – Projected Finish 6-11 / SoS: 3rd most difficult
No, I don’t think this team is good. But 5 wins? They can manage 5 wins. That’s it. That’s my expert analysis.
LA RAMS UNDER 8.5 (+115) – Projected Finish 6-11 / SoS: Most difficult
Everyone seems to be high on the Rams this year. I was low on them last year and got burned by McVay Magic. However, in addition to a gauntlet of a schedule, they still have an old, ailing QB, an older, oft-hobbled WR, and a young but newly hurt WR to replace him.
I can certainly see things going slightly south for the Rams in 2024. I don’t trust my numbers spitting out 6-11 but I’m getting two wins on top of that. If I get burned again I’m obviously tripling down next season. Lightning can’t strike three times, am I right??
KANSAS CITY OVER 9.5 (-140) – Projected Finish 11-6 / SoS: 20th most difficult
I mean, if someone asked you whether you thought the Chiefs would win at least 10 games this year, you’d pretty confidently say yes, wouldn’t you? I know I would. Plus, they have a relatively easy schedule playing in a division with three other teams that are in various stages of rebuilding. Gonna be a busy year for the Pacheco truck.
PITTSBURGH OVER 8.5 (+115) – Projected Finish 8-9 / SoS: 11th most difficult
Wait, I’m projecting this team to go 8-9 and I want to bet Over 8.5?
Listen, everybody’s got their data, and no one has better data than Vegas. They are well aware that the Steelers may not score a single touchdown all season.
The Steelers have a relatively easy schedule to start the season but the back half is just all-time levels of brutal. They play in arguably the most difficult division in the NFL and do not play a single division game until week 11. Over the last half of the year they basically just alternate Baltimore, Cleveland and Cincinnati with games against KC and Philly in the middle.
Wilson and Fields (particularly Dangeruss) have looked atrocious in preseason games, Jaylen Warren is hurt, and they have one wide receiver. Fortunately, Arthur Smith steadfastly refuses to run a pass play with more than 2 routes. Everything in their playbook is one of those Madden “shot” plays that never work. Who’s taking the shot here, Budd Dwyer? I should be hammering this under.
But as hilarious baseball purists love to joke, the game is not played on a spreadsheet! Sometimes you just have a feeling! The Steelers have not gone under .500 in like 50 years. Even when they suck, they scrap and luck together 9 wins. There’s no way it should be sustainable, yet it continues to happen, year after year. I’ve never seen a team be such a weird combination of well- and poorly-coached, all at the exact same time. Sure, Arthur Smith sucks. But he’s GOT to be better than Matt Canada, no?
Forget the numbers, forget the logic and reason, and bet on the Steelers once again stumbling ass-first into a 30 point Wild Card loss. It’s easy money!
