Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Expert Pick – May 4, 2024

TIMBERWOLVES VS. NUGGETS EXPERT PICK – MAY 4, 2024 – This is about as good as it gets for a second round series. While many predicted the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves would face each other in the playoffs, it was late season stumbles from both teams that allowed Oklahoma City to win the division, leading to this semifinal’s matchup.

The Nuggets are the defending champions led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. The Timberwolves dominated most of the regular season and they may be Denver’s toughest test of the playoffs.  

The NBA is truly the only league where you can throw out regular season betting trends and head-to-head matchups when predicting a playoff game or series. While the Timberwolves have looked the part this year, the Nuggets have the experience of navigating the playoffs and winning a championship. 

The Timberwolves made light work of the Phoenix Suns with the first sweep in franchise history – against a team that swept them in the regular season. The Nuggets sent the Los Angeles Lakers home in five games giving Lebron James the earliest playoff exit of his career. 

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The Odds 

Tipoff 

When: Saturday, May 4 at 7:00PM ET 

Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

TV: TNT

Public Bets: 63% Denver

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 4th, 2024

Cut from the same Cloth

This Timberwolves team is built to contend with the Nuggets and make a deep playoff run. As general manager of Denver, Tim Connelly was the mastermind behind their championship roster and has been with the Timberwolves for two years looking to do the same. Nuggets coach Michael Malone understands how dangerous they are.

“They had the best record in the West most of the year. They have two All-Stars. They have the Sixth Man of the Year. They have a Defensive Player of the Year finalist. They have a Coach of the Year finalist. They have a guy who scored 50 points in the All-Star game,” Malone said.

Loaded roster or not, it’s still going to be near impossible to stop the reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who is favored to win his third. It will be interesting to see if they have three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert matchup on him directly. Or, if they put Karl-Anthony Towns on him and have Gobert in a good help position. 

For the Timberwolves to have a shot of pulling off the upset and winning this series it is going to take an abundance of secondary scoring. Rising superstar Anthony Edwards will not be denied. He put up 31 of his 40 points in the second half to solidify the sweep of the Suns last Sunday.

If Towns can step up as that other scorer and make outside shots to open the floor they have a chance. Contributions from power forward Jaden McDaniels who had a 25-point game would really help the cause. Look out for guard Mike Conley and Gobert using their strong pick-and-roll to help with the scoring. 

While Minnesota may show us a strong pick-and-roll it is nothing compared to what Jokic and Jamal Murray can do with that set. They have potentially the best two-man game in the league, reminiscent of the great Utah Jazz teams of the 1990’s with John Stockton and Karl Malone.  

The Pick 

This may all come down to Jamal Murray’s calf injury. He was utilized more than expected against the Lakers and hit the game winning shot to send them home. With five days’ rest, he will be fine for game 1, but monitor this as the series moves forward. Murray is the key contributor when Jokic gets his much-needed rest – and the series could depend on this statistic as the Timberwolves look to take advantage when he is on the bench. 

Expect this to be a seven-game series with the Nuggets edging out the rising Timberwolves. Denver’s execution in close games was on full display against the Lakers and that’s why I trust them to move on to the next round.  Take the Nuggets team tonight as home court advantage will be on full display.