Tigers vs. Astros: AL Wild Card Analysis
TIGERS VS. ASTROS: AL WILD CARD ANALYSIS — Are the Tigers still the team that’s been tearing up the American League since the trade deadline, or are they out of gas? That’s the question that has to be asked after Detroit botched the last two games of the season against the awful White Sox, leaving the Tigers in sixth place behind Kansas City.
And that gives the Astros the last thing in the world they wanted to see in round one. In a short series, Detroit represents a potential nightmare. The Astros have good pitching, but the bullpen isn’t as good as the Tigers’ staff. And that could be a problem unless Houston is able to bury Detroit early.
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For the Astros to win this series, they must generate some offense. Houston is the better hitting team, and there are realistic questions about just how good Detroit’s bullpen is away from Comerica National Park. The Astros also have much more postseason experience, which could play out in their favor.
The biggest question, of course, is whether Detroit is mentally ready or gassed after its run. The Tigers have played with no margin for error for practically three months now. They were playing with no pressure, but that’s gone now that we’re in October. And the first time Detroit played without its need to go full throttle, it fell on its face. If it turns out the Tigers have nothing left after their run, this will prove little more than a warmup for Houston.
The Series
Game 1: Tuesday, October 1 at 2:30 p.m. EST
Game 2: Wednesday, October 2 at 2:30 p.m. EST
Game 3 (if necessary): Thursday, October 3 at 2:30 p.m. EST
TV: All games will be shown on ABC
Where: All games will be played at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Tigers vs. Astros In-Season Trends
Here’s how bizarre it is that Detroit even got to this point: one of the Tigers’ pitchers who beat Houston this year isn’t even on the Tigers’ roster anymore. Jack Flaherty got traded to Los Angeles before the deadline, as the Tigers thought they were done and dusted. The other win the Tigers earned came from ace Tarik Skubal, although in fairness, anyone would have beaten Houston after getting seven runs in the second inning.
The Astros’ biggest key to this series will be to avoid the big inning. In Detroit’s two wins over Houston, the Tigers scored 21 runs and exploded in the first three innings of the game. In their four losses, the Tigers managed just six runs. This isn’t a high-powered offense on its own; it needs to get all the bats going to succeed. If Houston can avoid that, it has the edge.
Players to Watch
Kyle Tucker has to make up for last year. He did not have a good postseason a year ago, and the Astros got dispatched as a result. He’ll be key to whether or not Houston can get ahead and keep Detroit from closing the door.
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Tarik Skubal has been virtually unbeatable this season. He’s the AL Triple Crown winner for pitchers and has been crucial in Detroit’s rapid rise up the standings. The Astros are probably looking at a Game 1 defeat with him on the mound, but they have beaten Skubal once before. The key for Houston is to avoid falling into a hole against Skubal. As much as Detroit’s ace bullpen is a Tiger strength, it’s much easier to go after that than Skubal.
The Prediction
So much depends on Game 1. If Houston can steal it, its chances of winning the series improve exponentially because Detroit doesn’t have that quality second starter. Reese Olson and Casey Mize have the stuff, but not the endurance after both got hurt around July. It’s not impossible for Detroit to win with one of them getting through four and trusting the bullpen for the final 12-15 outs, but that’s not ideal.
Houston has better hitting and gets all three games at home. That should give the Astros just enough to squeeze through.
Prediction: Astros in three
