Thursday Night Football: Saints at Rams Expert Pick

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: SAINTS AT RAMS EXPERT PICK – Thursday night is finally going to have an exciting matchup. The Saints are tied with the Buccaneers for the division lead, but do not own the tiebreaker over them. The Rams hold the last wild card spot, but the Seahawks and Saints have the same record.

This matchup is pivotal in deciding which teams end up in the playoffs. It has the makings of a good game and should start the week off with a bang.

Related: NFL Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, 8:15 pm EST, December 21, 2023

Where: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA

TV: Amazon Prime

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of  December 21st, 2023.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints handled the Giants last week, 24-6. Chris Olave injured his ankle and was not able to play last week. He was a limited participant on Tuesday, which puts him on track to play.

Tackle Ryan Ramcyzk was a non-participant due to a knee injury. Safety Lonnie Johnson was also a non-participant due to a knee injury.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams beat the Commanders 28-20 and moved to 7-7. Tutu Atwell, who missed last week’s game, was a full participant on Tuesday as he deals with a concussion. Tackle Rob Havenstein also practiced in full as he looks to move past his groin injury.

New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams Head-To-Head

These teams match up pretty well with each other. The Rams are a balanced offense, which enables them to change the game plan from week to week. The Saints are good at defending the pass and struggle against the run.

It would not be surprising if the Rams lean on their ground game on Thursday night. The Saints allow 126.4 rushing yards per game, but stay strong near the goal line as they only give up 19.1 points per game, the sixth-fewest. The Rams rank 11th in both rushing (121.3) and passing (235.9) yards per game and are ninth in points (23.4) per game.

The key stats, as always, are third-down conversions and turnovers. The Saints are great at getting off the field on third down. They allow teams to convert 34.9% of third downs, which is fourth-best.

The Rams convert 41.9% of third downs. Puka Nacua has the most receiving first downs on the team, so look for him to be a key contributor on third downs.

The other key statistic is in favor of the Saints. They have a +5 turnover differential, compared to -2 for the Rams. The Rams have not been giving the ball away; they just are not creating any turnovers.

The Rams only have 12 turnovers on the season, ranked 30th. The Saints have 22 takeaways and 17 giveaways. Jameis Winston accounts for three interceptions, and Derek Carr has seven.

The Saints’ defense should decide this game, especially if they create a turnover. On offense, Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave should have plenty of room to operate in the passing game as the leading targets.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total is 45.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, with an implied total of 24.5 for the Rams and 20.5 for the Saints. I like the over in this matchup, with two quarterbacks trending upward.

Spread

The Rams are 4-point favorites at home. I like the Rams to cover the spread and get a much-needed victory to get them one step closer to the playoffs.

Player Prop

I like all the tight ends in this matchup. Both teams struggle against tight ends, so the best way to attack this is to play the tight end who gets targeted consistently.

Tyler Higbee averages 4.6 targets per game, and they are usually close to the line of scrimmage. His reception total is 2.5, and I would take the over since he should be open on his five projected targets.