Jack's Best Play
I have a few pays for this game. I'll start with my big play on the game and outline two props that I'm considering.
I'm happy to see the point total settle at 42. The total opened at 43 and, as the big money came flooding in on the under, the total lost a point. I can see why some of the pros like the over here. The Raiders average 24.3 points per game and the offense is humming. Meanwhile, Vegas ranks 30th in DVOA for pass defense. The game script for Vegas is to outscore the opponent. This bodes well for the over.
My problem with the OVER concerns Josh Jacobs, who is dealing with some injuries. The Rams still rank fifth in DVOA against the rush and the defensive line didn't play too poorly without Aaron Donald last week. The injuries to Jacobs could slow him down on a short week, forcing Derek Carr to rely on Davante Adams to produce.
The Rams don't score much and they shouldn't catch fire here. Yes, yes. The Raiders secondary is bad. But, even if Baker Mayfield starts, can we count on a Kupp-less Rams team to take advantage of the poor secondary?
Neither of these teams play fast, either. The Raiders are 22nd in seconds per play (28.1), while the Rams are 24th (28.99). Take the under at 42.
You may also want to fade Jacobs for rushing yards. The injuries and the Rams defensive line could slow him down and the totals are bound to be high based on his performances as of late. The Rams love running the ball, even tough Cam Akers is 38th in DYAR. Consider Akers +15 carries tonight. Even if the Rams are well behind, they will continue to feed Akers.
