Thursday Night Football: Jaguars at Saints Expert Pick – October 19, 2023

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: JAGUARS AT SAINTS EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 19, 2023 – The Jaguars went to London and gained some momentum.

They beat the Falcons and Bills across the pond and came home to beat the Colts by 17. They are riding a three-game winning streak into New Orleans to take on the Saints.

The Saints have lost three of their last four, with the latest coming last week against the Texans. It has the makings of an entertaining Thursday night game.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, October 19, 2023

Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

TV: Amazon Prime

Public Money: Saints 64%

Public Bets: Saints, 76%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of  October 18th, 2023.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are running hot right now and have won three in a row with a major upset win over the Bills. There are some concerns at quarterback this week, though. Trevor Lawrence sprained his left knee on Sunday and is in jeopardy of missing this game on a short week.

The team is optimistic that he will play after practicing in a limited fashion. They also have several other starters dealing with injuries.

Offensive linemen Brandon Scherff and Walker Little, cornerback Tyson Campbell, and wideout Zay Jones are questionable to play Thursday.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are dealing with numerous injuries themselves.

Tight end Juwan Johnson, tackle Ryan Ramczyk, and linebacker Demario Davis did not participate in practice on Tuesday, jeopardizing their availability. Cameron Jordan, Lonnie Johnson, and Tyrann Mathieu practiced in a limited fashion for the defense.

The offense saw the return of Jamaal Williams from the IR as he started practicing again. Chris Olave and Andrus Peat were also limited in practice and are trending in the right direction ahead of Thursday.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Head-To-Head

The Saints defense has been stellar this season. They give up the sixth-fewest points (16) per game, the third-fewest total yards (294.2) per game, and only let teams convert 2.1% of third downs.

The offensive production has been lacking, however. The injuries they are dealing with do not provide much hope either. Derek Carr has been sacked eighth-most of all quarterbacks and returned to full participation in practice after dealing with a shoulder injury.

The Jaguars have the sixth-fewest sacks this season but could find a few this week, especially if Peat and Ramczyk do not play. They are also struggling to score in the red zone. They have only scored on 36.84% of trips to the red zone, which is the fourth-worst in the league.

Throwing the ball should be a little easier this week. The Jaguars allow 270.3 passing yards per game, which is the second-highest. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed should have multiple opportunities for big plays against this defense.

Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne have this offense playing on a different level.

They should face a tough test against the Saints’ defense. They have scored at least 23 points in their last three games and are averaging 28.3.

The Saints’ defense allows fewer than that, but they are banged up and will not be at full strength. Lawrence only has three interceptions on the season, but the offense has fumbled five times. Luckily, the defense has forced 15 turnovers(most in the NFL), which gives them a +7 turnover differential (second best). The injuries will play a major role in this game and could turn into a back-and-forth affair.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total is 40 on DraftKings. I like the over in this matchup with two banged-up secondaries.

Spread

The Saints are a one-point favorite at home. I would play the Jaguars +1.

Player Prop

Rashid Shaheed has solidified himself as the third receiver on this team and has earned 27 targets. He has caught 16, with six of those being 20+ yards.

He has big-play ability and a good matchup. The Jaguars stop the run and are porous against the pass. He should have multiple opportunities to top his receiving yards total of 35.5 yards. He has surpassed that number in half of his games this season.