Thursday Night Football: Giants at 49ers Expert Pick – September 21, 2023

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: GIANTS AT 49ERS EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 21, 2023 – The Giants somehow escaped week two with a win over the Cardinals and now have to turn around on a short week to face one of the NFL’s best teams.

The 49ers beat their division rival on the road and remain undefeated through two weeks. Now, the 49ers will play their first real home game at Levi’s Stadium as 10-point favorites.

Related: NFL Week Three Fantasy Sleepers

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, September 21st at 8:15 pm EST

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

TV: Amazon Prime

Public Money: 49ers, 77%

Public Bets: 49ers, 82%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of September 14th, 2023.

New York Giants

Daniel Jones led a comeback last week against the Cardinals and helped his team outscore them 17 to nothing in the fourth quarter.

They may have lost Saquon Barkley for a few weeks during the comeback. He suffered a sprained ankle, and it looked like he would miss a few weeks, but Brian Daboll will not rule him out for Thursday’s game and claims he ‘feels much better.’

It was not a high ankle sprain, so he could play through the injury this week, especially if the swelling went down quickly. Matt Breida should serve as his replacement against his former team if Barkley cannot play.

The Giants have a tall task in front of them on Thursday.

They have surrendered the most points through two games this season, allowing opponents to score 34 points per game. One of those opponents was the Joshua Dobbs-led Cardinals, which does not bode well for their chances this week. The defense needs to play significantly better if they want a chance to win this game.

San Francisco 49ers

The Rams put up a fight last week but came up short in the end as the 49ers forced a couple of turnovers. Brandon Aiyuk injured his shoulder during the game and was limited in Tuesday’s practice.

It is a good sign that he saw the field on Tuesday, but he remains questionable. Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings should be in line for more opportunities if Aiyuk cannot play.

The 49ers have been one of the best defenses in points allowed and rushing yards. They allow 15 points per game and 65 rushing yards per game thus far in the young season. They have given up 247.5 passing yards per game and have shown they give up yards through the air.

New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers Head-To-Head

The 49ers’ faithful turned SoFi Stadium into a scarlet sea last weekend and made the Rams feel like an away team in Los Angeles. Now they have a real home game, and the fans will be loud from the jump.

Dallas beat the Giants 40 to nothing in their opener by harassing Daniel Jones. Nick Bosa and the 49ers’ pass rush should be able to swarm Jones all night and make life difficult for him. They have recorded six sacks thus far and should notch at least a couple more this week.

Daniel Jones could become a threat with his legs if the 49ers do a poor job of containing him in the pocket. Jones averages 51 rushing yards per game and can change the game with his legs.

Darren Waller may get utilized more if Barkley cannot play. He has caught nine passes for 112 yards this season and has not made an impact yet. He has drawn much of the attention from defenses but needs to start making big plays for his new team.

The Giant’s defensive unit has its hands full this week. The 49ers’ offense may be the most talent-filled bunch in the league. Christian McCaffrey averages 134 rushing yards per game and has hit paydirt twice.

Deebo Samuel accounted for 101 scrimmage yards last week and found the end zone for the first time this year. He could get used more as a receiver this week if Aiyuk were to miss.

George Kittle has not had an offensive explosion yet, but he remains vital in the offense due to his run blocking. The Giants need to harass Brock Purdy, but it may be difficult if Kyle Shanahan dials up quick throws to his playmakers.

Purdy has yet to throw an interception this season and has completed 66.7% of his passes. The 49ers should have an easy time moving the ball on the ground because the Giants allow 136.5 rushing yards per game.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total currently is at 44.5. Both teams went under this number in their opening game and went over in their second game. I do not have an official play, but I lean towards the over.

Spread

The 49ers are a 10-point favorite at home and should cover that number. I have to go with the 49ers -10 because the Giants will not pressure Purdy, and Jones will have to deal with it all night. I would not risk a lot, however.

Player Prop

Deebo Samuel has had games with five and six receptions thus far, and his reception total is at 4.5 on DraftKings. I like the over 4.5 on this prop, which seems low, with Aiyuk listed as questionable.