Thursday Night Football: Bucs at Bills Expert Pick – October 26, 2023

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: BUCS AT BILLS EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 26, 2023 – These teams need a win badly. The Buccaneers are in a weak division and will have a chance of winning it if they can win a few unexpected games. The Bills need a victory after losing to the Patriots last week.

Miami is now leading the division, but the Bills have a win over them, and they will meet in the final game of the season, which could be the decisive game for the division. They must first handle the Buccaneers on a short week, however.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday at 7:15 pm, October 26, 2023

Where: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY

TV: Amazon Prime

Public Money: Bills, 81%

Public Bets: Bills, 82%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of  October 25th, 2023.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have lost back-to-back games against the Falcons and Lions at home.

They stand at 3-3 and travel to Buffalo to face a tough matchup with the Bills. Baker Mayfield was limited in practice on Tuesday due to a knee issue and is trending in the right direction to play Thursday.

Chris Godwin is dealing with a neck injury that kept him limited in Tuesday’s practice.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills got beat by the Patriots as 7.5-point road favorites last week.

It was a disappointing loss that dropped the Bills’ record to 4-3. Two of their three losses came against the Jets and the Patriots, which could haunt them later in the season.

Tight end Dawson Knox is due to undergo surgery on his wrist, and his timetable to return is unknown. Von Miller, Ed Oliver, and Jordan Phillips were all limited in Tuesday’s practice. Their status will have clarity closer to game time.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills Head-To-Head

Sean McDermott should have his players motivated after a tough loss. They have a good matchup against the Buccaneers this week. The Bills are weak against the run, but the Buccaneers average 77.8 rushing yards per game, ranked twenty-ninth.

They also average 17.2 points, which ties for twenty-sixth. The Bills have not been productive this season but have been moving the chains.  

They convert 43.2% of third downs but allow teams to convert third downs at the highest rate (50%). Getting off the field will be vital for the Bills on defense, and Mayfield’s knee injury may make him less mobile.

Can the Bills Play Protect?

The Bills should be able to move the ball efficiently, but they need to protect the ball. The Buccaneers have the highest turnover differential in the league at +7 and have forced 13 turnovers this season.

The Bills have 11 giveaways but have forced 14 turnovers. This game will likely hinge on the arms of Mayfield and Josh Allen. Allen has been prone to throwing interceptions this season, which could become a problem this week.

The Bills’ offense, if they take care of the ball, should be able to move the ball on this defense. The Buccaneers allow 246.7 passing yards per game, and the Bills average 256.9 passing yards per game.

Stefon Diggs should find gaps in this defense, and Dalton Kincaid could look to improve on his rookie season. Kincaid was targeted eight times last week and led the team with eight receptions. He also led the team with 75 receiving yards. He was only behind Diggs in targets.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total is 43 for this game, and I would play the over. The Bills defense has given up 25+ points twice in the last three weeks, and the Buccaneers do not match up well with this offense.

Spread

The Bills are 8.5-point favorites at home this week. I like the Buccaneers +8.5. Allen has been turnover-prone, and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are talented enough to find separation against this secondary.

Player Prop

Rachaad White is averaging 27.2 receiving yards per game and just caught six passes for 65 yards against the Falcons. The Bills have been getting beat by running backs catching passes.

They give up 43.3 receiving yards per game to the running back position, and White ties for the third-most targets on the team. His receiving yards total is 22.5 on DraftKings, and the over is a solid prop.