Thursday Night Football: Bears at Commanders Expert Pick – October 5, 2023

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: BEARS AT COMMANDERS EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 5, 2023-  The winless Bears will travel to Washington to take on the 2-2 Commanders. Both teams have young quarterbacks that have struggled some this season. They are also entering this game following the best games thus far this season. It should be an entertaining matchup between two young teams.

Related: NFL Week Four Fantasy Sleepers

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, October 5, 2023

Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD

TV: Amazon Prime

Public Money: Bears, 56%

Public Bets: Commanders, 63%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of  October 4th, 2023.

Chicago Bears

The Bears just blew a 28-7 lead at home against the Broncos. Justin Fields threw for four TDs but threw an interception on their last possession after the Broncos kicked a field goal to go up by three.

It was a devastating loss. They could get their left guard, Teven Jenkins, back from injury for Thursday. He returned from injured reserve this week and has a three-week window to return to action. He fully participated in practice on Monday and Tuesday, so he is trending in the right direction.

Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson have not been practicing on the defensive side. Jackson is dealing with a foot injury, and Johnson has a hamstring injury. Both missed practice on Monday and Tuesday, which is not a good sign heading into a Thursday night matchup.

Washington Commanders

The Eagles nearly got upset at home by the Commanders. Sam Howell connected with Jahan Dotson with 0:00 on the clock in the fourth quarter to be an extra point away from tying it.

The Commanders went on to lose on a walk-off 54-yard field goal by Jake Elliott, but it was an impressive effort by the young team. Howell performed well against the injured Eagles’ secondary after throwing four interceptions the week before.

Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel have been limited participants this week. They should both have a decent chance of playing on Thursday if they do not have any setbacks.

Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Head-To-Head

Neither team has been awe-inspiring this season. The Bears allow 34.3 points per game (31st), and the Commanders allow 30.0 points per game (29th). They are not stopping anything this season.

The Bears allow teams to convert 58.9% of third downs, the worst in the league. Luckily for them, the Commanders only convert 33.3% of third downs, which is 27th league-wide.

The big difference in this game will be how the Commanders’ defensive line stacks up against the offensive line of the Bears. They are averaging 3.3 sacks per game after a quarter of the season. Justin Fields has been sacked 17 times this season, third-most in the league.

The Commander’s defensive line should be wreaking havoc all game, which is awful news for Fields. His only good outing came against the porous Broncos’ pass defense. The Commanders are mediocre against the pass (230 passing yards per game), but they should be able to contain the Bears receivers.

Sam Howell has been sacked the most (24) of any quarterback this season. Chicago has not had success getting after the quarterback this season. They average a measly 0.5 sacks per game, which is dead last.

If Teven Jenkins returns for Washington, the pass protection should improve as their chemistry as a unit increases. Both offenses are explosive enough to execute against these weak defenses, but it may turn into a shootout. The Bears have Fields, who can break a game with his legs, and the Commanders have numerous brilliant receivers.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total for this game is 44.5 on DraftKings at the time of writing, and I would take the over. Neither defense is good, and both offenses have enough playmakers to score points.

Spread

The Commanders are six-point favorites on DraftKings but sitting at -5.5 on most sportsbooks. Justin Fields and the Bears should be able to do enough in this one to keep it within a score, and I will side with the Bears at +6.

Player Prop

Khalil Herbert looked explosive last week against the Broncos.

He ran 18 times for 103 yards on 5.7 yards per carry. His rushing yards total is currently 44.5, and I would play the over against this Commanders’ defense that allows 122.5 rushing yards per game.