Jack's Best Play
Game Script
The 49ers will attempt to ride a conservative game plan and a formidable defense to victory. The keys for San Francisco will be contain DK Metcalf and limit the explosive plays Geno Smith can make with his arm. On offense, they will try to simplify the game for their ailing third-string quarterback by calling plays for Christian McCaffrey underneath. The injury to Deebo Samuel will hurt the game script, but a win here could shore up the division for the Niners.
The Seahawks will turn to Geno Smith and the dangerous offense to establish an early lead against one of the best defenses in the country. The script will almost certainly involve making Purdy play from behind in hopes that he can't handle the pressure and begins to make mistakes. When the Seahawks offense is able to run with precision, they are tough to beat.
Trend Mania
The trends for this game don't look great for the Seahawks. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in December, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games on fieldturf. Seattle is also 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. I haven't found a trend that points to a Seahawks cover in this game.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are hot against the spread. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win, and 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. at NFC West opponent.
Explosive Plays
Those trends are hard to ignore.
Much of Seattle's issues ATS in the last few weeks has been due to the fact that Vegas has been overvaluing them. The Seahawks covered a lot of games early in the year and, even though they've cooled off lately, they are still formidable as a favorite against a team with a third-string quarterback making his second NFL start.
The Seahawks' defense has been vulnerable to the explosive play this year. PFF grades the Seahawks coverage 21st in the NFL. The pass rush is even worse, ranking 27th in the NFL. The Seahawks will need to create pressure in order to force Brock Purdy to make mistake and limit the big play potential of the Niners wide outs.
Through 12 games of the season, the 49ers have recorded 76 big plays. Last week, we saw Purdy's ability to get the ball downfield. The Seahawks will need a strong defensive performance to stay close in this game.
The Seahawks have recorded 80 big plays through 12 games of the season, but the 49ers will have an easier time limiting this potential. PFF grades the 49ers coverage as 4th in the NFL and their pass rush as 9th.
Even with a hobbled third-string quarterback and no Deebo Samuel, I like the 49ers this week. They are the superior team and have proven they can win in spite of mediocre quarterback play. Meanwhile, the Seahawks haven't covered in four weeks and are hanging onto a once promising season. Lay the wood.
